US Govt Hiding Top Hurricane Forecast Model Sparks Outrage After Deadly Helene

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cannot reveal weather forecasts from a particularly accurate hurricane prediction model to the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.

The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).

A 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences, disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post, requires NOAA to keep HCCA forecasts – which incorporate a proprietary technique from RenaissanceRe – secret for five years.

The deal is scheduled to expire next year, and NOAA reportedly expects to release HCCA model data in time for the 2025 hurricane season.

But in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene – which hit the US southeast, left a 800-mile trail of destruction, and is said to have killed at least 130 people since Thursday – there are calls to make HCCA data available sooner. It's hoped the model's output will help people make better decisions, potentially life- and property-saving, ahead of incoming super-storms.

"Placing business interests over public disclosure cannot be the precedent for public-private industry partnerships, and certainly not for projects that have the ability to save lives," said Lauren Harper, Daniel Ellsberg Chair on Government Secrecy at Freedom of the Press Foundation, in an article last week.

"It also goes against the United States’ commitment to open data and making taxpayer-funded research available to the public."

Harper also argues that limiting the information about hurricanes hinders the work of other government agencies including the Federal Emergency Management Agency. As many as 1,000 active-duty soldiers, as well as FEMA agents and resources, have been sent to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene to help in the recovery.

"Going forward, [NOAA] should not preemptively agree to withhold vital information from the public," Harper said. "NOAA should immediately reverse course and make its best hurricane predictions available, citing the clear and immediate harm members of the public will face if they do not have access to the data."

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RenaissanceRe did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

NOAA's Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADA) cover deals between the government organization and other entities.

"The agency provides personnel, services, facilities, equipment, intellectual property or other resources with or without reimbursement (but not funds) and the other party provides funds, personnel, services, facilities, equipment or other resources toward the conduct of specified research and development efforts consistent with the agency's mission," explained Susan Buchanan, Director of Public Affairs for the National Weather Service, in response to an inquiry from The Register.

Asked whether the NOAA deal affected the release of information about Hurricane Helene, Buchanan said, "HCCA is one of many computer models that forecasters use at the National Hurricane Center. NHC forecasters use a variety of model guidance, observations, and expert knowledge to develop the best and most consistent forecast, along with watches, warnings and other hazard information for use by the emergency management community, the public, and other core partners and decision makers." ®

Stormnote

Spruce Pine, a small town in North Carolina smashed by Helene, is said to be America's primary, if not sole, source of high-purity quartz, which is needed for manufacturing silicon wafers for semiconductors as well as solar panels.

That super-pure quartz is able to withstand high temperatures without introducing impurities or defects to a product, and thus is used as a crucible in the making of chips and solar panels. Though labs are working on artificial alternatives, so far Spruce Pine's quartz can't be beat – and continuing its supply would appear to be crucial.

Apropos of nothing... Project 2025 – a policy blueprint for a possible future Trump administration proposed by hard-right conservatives – calls for breaking up and downsizing NOAA, and also "fully commercializing" the forecasting done by the National Weather Service.