Where Are The Pockets Of Positivity?

Global political uncertainty shows no signs of abating and while markets appear to have become relatively immune to the daily newsflow pertaining to Brexit or trade wars, heightened volatility suggests concerns remain.

And as asset managers are fully aware, investors do not like this uncertainty, and the numbers exist to prove it; statistics from the Investment Association (IA) reported a shocking £41bn drop in net retail sales last year, and Helen Pridham, author of The Pridham Report, told how fund managers' fortunes "slumped again" in 2018 - particularly notable after a "bumper" 2017 - with Brexit and broader global unknowns casting their shadows.

So, looking ahead, what can the investment industry expect? More conservative estimates, profit forecast downgrades and outflows, it seems.

Following the poor sales at the back end of last year, broker Peel Hunt looked across the listed wealth and asset management space and said "very few" looked resilient to market pressures.

EPS downgrades took place across the board; Brooks Macdonald was downgraded by 6%, while Charles Stanley was almost 39% lower.

In its note, Peel Hunt said: "The last quarter of 2018 was a difficult one… our profit forecasts fell. Unsurprisingly, as investor sentiment deteriorated, flows were also much weaker across the sector. On average, flows declined by an average of 10% compared with Q3."

So where are the pockets of positivity?

The UK equity market, being so unloved, is offering up some bargain buying opportunities, according to fund managers in the space.

For active managers, perhaps more volatility presents an opportunity to prove their worth following a successful few years of asset gathering and outperformance among passive vehicles.

And, despite the challenging end to last year, overall AUM among asset managers increased for 2018 by 6%, Peel Hunt analysts said, evidence the industry can be resilient in tough times.

Brexit-related uncertainty will clearly be on the radar for many years yet, and as the likelihood of the 29 March deadline being pushed out increases, it should not be too absurd to expect more clarity on the topic in the second half of 2019.

We can only hope.

For those optimists, this ought to encourage those shunning British shores to return, be they investors in the stockmarket or from a business perspective.