Technically speaking, the major U.S. benchmarks are concluding July on a bullish note, digesting potentially consequential early-month breakouts.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 has registered three July rallies to record territory — in grinding-higher form — and its prolonged slow-motion breakout attempt remains in play.
Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.39% hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.
As illustrated, the S&P is digesting a jagged July break to record territory.
Tactically, the breakout point (3,017) remains an inflection point. Delving deeper, notable support matches the prevailing range bottom (2,973).
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.23% remains range-bound.
To reiterate, well-defined support closely matches the bottom of the July gap (27,088). This area underpins a bullish flag-like pattern, illustrated on the daily chart.
Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.38% has whipsawed of late near record territory.
Tactically, the 8,264 area remains a near-term inflection point. Delving deeper, major support matches the early-July breakout point (8,172), an area also illustrated below.
Widening the view to six months adds perspective.
On this wider view, the Nasdaq has rallied to challenge record territory, rising from a jagged retest of major support (8,176).
More broadly, the prevailing rally from the June low continues to be punctuated by shallow, and relatively short-lived, pullbacks. Bullish price action.
Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not pressing new highs.
Still, the Dow’s record close (27,359.16) and absolute record peak (27,398.68) remain within striking distance.
Slightly more broadly, recall that the mid-July spike registered as an unusually bullish two standard deviation breakout, the most decisive of the widely-tracked U.S. benchmarks. The subsequent bull flag is a continuation pattern, underpinned by gap support (27,088). Bullish price action.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is pressing record territory atop the 3,000 mark.
The prevailing upturn punctuates a successful test of the 20-day moving average, currently 2,998, as well as near-term support (2,973).
The bigger picture
Collectively, the bigger-picture backdrop remains comfortably bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, due out mid-week.
On a headline basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite registered nominal record highs last week — in grinding-higher form — while the Dow industrials remain range-bound, digesting a decisive mid-July breakout.
Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF remains range-bound.
Still, the small-cap benchmark has recently rallied toward the range top amid increased volume. Tactically, the July peak (158.03) is followed by firmer overhead matching the former rang top (159.50).
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 has nailed its range top.
Recall that the MDY twice tagged a year-to-date peak (361.69) last week, a level precisely matching the Wednesday and Friday session highs.
Monday’s session high (361.52) closely matched resistance — as well as the April peak (361.52) — and an extended breakout attempt remains underway. A near-term target projects to the 367 area on follow-through.
Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 continues to press record territory.
The prevailing upturn punctuates a successful test of the 20-day moving average, currently 299.20, a level that has recently defined the SPY’s trend.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 started July with a spike to record territory, and has since extended a jagged breakout, in grinding-higher form. A near-term target continues to project from the July range to the 3,052 area.
Conversely, the prevailing upturn originates from near-term support (2,973) an area followed by the firmer breakout point broadly spanning from 2,952 to 2,964.
Delving deeper, major support matches the late-June low (2,912) — an area that launched the July breakout — as well as the 50-day moving average, currently 2,921.
Tactically, the S&P 500’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish barring a violation of these areas. The response to the Federal Reserve’s policy directive, due out Wednesday, will likely add color.
See also: Bull trend intact: S&P 500 sustains break to uncharted territory.
Tuesday’s Watch List
The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names — sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see The Technical Indicator Library.
Drilling down further, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF SMH, -0.67% — initially profiled July 9, on the pullback to support — has returned 9.4% across three weeks and remains well positioned.
As illustrated, the group has rallied to record territory, clearing resistance matching the April peak.
The ensuing pullback has been flat, underpinned by the breakout point (119.60) positioning the group to extend the uptrend. (The post-breakout low (119.60), established Monday, matched the breakout point to the decimal.)
On a more granular note, the July upturn has marked a two standard deviation breakout, initially encompassing three straight closes atop the 20-day volatility bands. Put differently, bullish momentum has registered as statistically unusual, likely laying the groundwork for longer-term follow-through.
Moving to specific names, Teradyne, Inc. is a well positioned large-cap semiconductor name.
As illustrated, the shares have knifed to nearly 19-year highs — the best levels since September 2000 — rising after the company’s quarterly results. The subsequent pullback has been flat, fueled by decreased volume, positioning the shares to build on the initial spike.
More broadly, the shares are well positioned on the three-year chart, clearing major resistance matching the 2018 peak.
Tactically, a near-term floor (55.75) is followed by the top of the gap (53.13) and a posture higher supports a bullish bias.
Initially profiled July 19, Dow 30 component International Business Machines Corp. IBM, -0.57% has edged slightly higher and remains well positioned. (Yield = 4.3%.)
Earlier this month, the shares staged a strong-volume breakout, reaching nine-month highs after the company’s second-quarter results.
The subsequent flag pattern signals muted selling pressure, likely laying the groundwork for incremental gains. Tactically, the post-breakout low (148.40) offers an area from which to work, and IBM’s rally attempt is intact barring a violation.
Polaris Industries, Inc. PII, -0.36% is a large-cap manufacturer of recreational and all-terrain vehicles.
Technically, the shares have recently knifed atop trendline resistance — as well as the 50- and 200-day moving averages — rising after the company’s quarterly results.
Moreover, the shares have also registered a “higher high” versus the June peak, more firmly signaling a trend shift. Tactically, near-term support (81.90) is followed by the major moving averages, circa 88, and the recovery attempt is intact barring a violation.
Celenese Corp. CE, +0.00% is a large-cap manufacturer of specialty chemicals and materials.
As illustrated, the shares have recently spiked amid increased volume, rising to challenge nine-month highs after the company’s quarterly results.
Selling pressure near the range top has been flat, fueled by increased volume, laying the groundwork for potential follow-through. Tactically, the former range top pivots to support (109.60) and a breakout attempt is in play baring a violation.
Finally, SSR Mining, Inc. SSRM, +2.31% is a mid-cap Vancouver-based gold and silver miner positioned to rise.
Technically, the shares have formed a July flag pattern, digesting a mid-month spike to six-year highs.
More broadly, the shares are well positioned on the 10-year chart, reaching less-charted territory from a multi-year base. Tactically, near-term support (16.10) is followed by the post-breakout low (15.50) and the prevailing rally attempt is firmly intact barring a violation.
Still well positioned
The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library.
| Company | Symbol | Date Profiled |
| Deere & Co. | DE | July 29 |
| F5 Networks, Inc. | FFIV | July 29 |
| United Parcel Service, Inc. | UPS | July 29 |
| Ciena Corp. | CIEN | July 26 |
| Abbott Laboratories | ABT | July 26 |
| International Paper Co. | IP | July 26 |
| Wix.com, Ltd. | WIX | July 25 |
| Westlake Chemical Corp. | WLK | July 25 |
| Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | BABA | July 24 |
| Capital One Financial Corp. | COF | July 24 |
| CVS Health Corp. | CVS | July 24 |
| KLA-Tencor Corp. | KLAC | July 23 |
| Splunk, Inc. | SPLK | July 23 |
| Kansas City Southern Corp. | KSU | July 23 |
| Best Buy Co., Inc. | BBY | July 22 |
| Humana, Inc. | HUM | July 22 |
| AngloGold Ashanti, Ltd. | AU | July 22 |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM | July 19 |
| Pegasystems, Inc. | PEGA | July 19 |
| DexCom, Inc. | DXCM | July 19 |
| EchoStar Corp. | SATS | July 18 |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. | AEM | July 18 |
| Franco-Nevada Corp. | FNV | July 18 |
| Pan American Silver Corp. | PAAS | July 17 |
| Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | NBIX | July 17 |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc. | STLD | July 17 |
| Industrial Select Sector SPDR | XLI | July 16 |
| LivePerson, Inc. | LPSN | July 16 |
| Analog Devices, Inc. | ADI | July 16 |
| Xilinx, Inc. | XLNX | July 16 |
| Texas Instruments, Inc. | TXN | July 15 |
| Packaging Corp. of America | PKG | July 15 |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | JBHT | July 15 |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. | DAL | July 12 |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO | July 12 |
| UnitedHealth Group, Inc. | UNH | July 12 |
| Zendesk, Inc. | ZEN | July 11 |
| Owens Corning | OC | July 11 |
| TJX Companies, Inc. | TJX | July 11 |
| Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | SRPT | July 11 |
| Twitter, Inc. | TWTR | July 10 |
| Micron Technology, Inc. | MU | July 10 |
| VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF | SMH | July 9 |
| Keysight Technologies, Inc. | KEYS | July 9 |
| Stratasys, Ltd. | SSYS | July 9 |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL | July 9 |
| iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ | July 8 |
| Inphi Corp. | IPHI | July 8 |
| Zscaler, Inc. | ZS | July 8 |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | QQQ | July 2 |
| PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | PNC | July 1 |
| Teledoc Health, Inc. | TDOC | July 1 |
| Cummins, Inc. | CMI | July 1 |
| MSCI, Inc. | MSCI | July 1 |
| Whirlpool Corp. | WHR | June 28 |
| Shake Shack, Inc. | SHAK | June 28 |
| FMC Corp. | FMC | June 27 |
| ArQule, Inc. | ARQL | June 27 |
| SunPower Corp. | SPWR | June 26 |
| Blueprint Medicines Corp. | BPMC | June 26 |
| Oracle Corp. | ORCL | June 25 |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | WSM | June 25 |
| Sunrun, Inc. | RUN | June 25 |
| Adobe, Inc. | ADBE | June 24 |
| Spotify Technology | SPOT | June 24 |
| HollyFrontier Corp. | HFC | June 24 |
| SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | XBI | June 24 |
| Apple, Inc. | AAPL | June 21 |
| VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF | GDX | June 21 |
| iShares Silver Trust | SLV | June 20 |
| Aecom | ACM | June 20 |
| Home Depot, Inc. | HD | June 19 |
| Lululemon Athletica, Inc. | LULU | June 19 |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | AMZN | June 18 |
| Facebook, Inc. | FB | June 18 |
| SPDR Gold Shares ETF | GLD | June 18 |
| Synopsys, Inc. | SNPS | June 17 |
| Zillow Group, Inc. | ZG | June 17 |
| Verisk Analytics, Inc. | VRSK | June 17 |
| Cisco Systems, Inc. | CSCO | June 14 |
| Medtronic plc | MDT | June 14 |
| Ross Stores, Inc. | ROST | June 14 |
| Financial Select Sector SPDR | XLF | June 13 |
| Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. | KL | June 13 |
| Grubhub, Inc. | GRUB | June 12 |
| Dunkin Brands Group, Inc. | DNKN | June 12 |
| Ciena Corp. | CIEN | June 11 |
| Silicon Laboratories, Inc. | SLAB | June 11 |
| Health Care Select Sector SPDR | XLV | June 10 |
| Wix.com Ltd. | WIX | June 10 |
| Ecolab, Inc. | ECL | June 10 |
| Materials Select Sector SPDR | XLB | June 7 |
| Brooks Automation, Inc. | BRKS | June 7 |
| Catalent, Inc. | CTLT | June 7 |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO | June 6 |
| Nasdaq, Inc. | NDAQ | June 6 |
| Target Corp. | TGT | June 5 |
| Dollar General Corp. | DG | June 5 |
| Repligen Corp. | RGEN | June 5 |
| Avalara, Inc. | AVLR | May 23 |
| Copa Holdings, S.A. | CPA | May 21 |
| Open Text Corp. | OTEX | May 20 |
| Zscaler, Inc. | ZS | May 17 |
| Aspen Technology, Inc. | AZPN | May 17 |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | May 16 |
| Atlassian Corp. | TEAM | May 16 |
| SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | SEDG | May 16 |
| Roku, Inc. | ROKU | May 15 |
| Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ARNA | May 15 |
| CME Group, Inc. | CME | May 10 |
| Johnson Controls International | JCI | May 10 |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | TTWO | May 2 |
| Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. | JEC | May 2 |
| JetBlue Airways Corp. | JBLU | Apr. 30 |
| American Express Co. | AXP | Apr. 24 |
| MetLife, Inc. | MET | Apr. 17 |
| Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | CHD | Mar. 29 |
| Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | XLP | Mar. 28 |
| Pepsico, Inc. | PEP | Mar. 27 |
| Shopify, Inc. | SHOP | Mar. 27 |
| Kimberly-Clark Corp. | KMB | Mar. 15 |
| iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | IYR | Mar. 13 |
| Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. | APD | Mar. 11 |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. | HLT | Mar. 6 |
| Costco Wholesale Corp. | COST | Mar. 6 |
| Marvell Technology Group Ltd. | MRVL | Mar. 1 |
| Universal Display Corp. | OLED | Mar. 1 |
| Vulcan Materials Co. | VMC | Mar. 1 |
| Walmart, Inc. | WMT | Feb. 22 |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | Feb. 22 |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc. | MSI | Feb. 15 |
| First Solar, Inc. | FSLR | Feb. 15 |
| Mastercard, Inc. | MA | Feb. 11 |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Feb. 8 |
| Global Payments, Inc. | GPN | Feb. 5 |
| Visa, Inc. | V | Feb. 4 |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF | XHB | Jan. 30 |
| Exact Sciences Corp. | EXAS | Jan. 28 |
| Applied Materials, Inc. | AMAT | Jan. 25 |
| SBA Communications Corp. | SBAC | Jan. 24 |
| Paycom Software, Inc. | PAYC | Jan. 23 |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | AMD | Jan. 22 |
| VeriSign, Inc. | VRSN | Jan. 18 |
| Coupa Software, Inc. | COUP | Jan. 16 |
| Veeva Systems, Inc. | VEEV | Jan. 16 |
| CyberArk Software | CYBR | Jan. 11 |
| Okta, Inc. | OKTA | Jan. 9 |
| Alteryx, Inc. | AYX | Jan. 8 |
| IAC/InterActivecorp | IAC | Jan. 7 |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | Dec. 10 |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Nov. 5 |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Nov. 5 |
| Utilities Select Sector SPDR | XLU | Oct. 25 |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Oct. 24 |
| Yum! Brands, Inc. | YUM | Oct. 18 |
| Twilio, Inc. | TWLO | May 21 |