The “weakest week” of the year for the S&P 500 is upon us.
What that means, according to our chart of the day below, is that based on history, this has generally been a lousy week for returns in stocks.
And indeed, this morning, investors are struggling to look past some bearish headlines to keep their fingers on the buying trigger.
One longtime Wall Street analyst says the optimists have the right idea.
In the call of the day, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and author of Dr. Ed’s blog, shrugs off the bear case and predicts that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.07% will hit 3,100 this year and rally a total of 20% by the end of 2020.
“I’ve got 3,500 as my target for next year,” he told CNBC in an interview. “We’ll get there on higher earnings with maybe somewhat higher valuation as the perception continues to be that interest rates aren’t going up much, if at all.”
He also pointed to the drone attack on Saudi Arabia, which sent oil prices flying, as something that could have led to a much deeper pullback.
“That would have been a good opportunity to have a significant sell-off. Instead, it was pretty puny,” Yardeni explained. “The market is hanging in there and should do better over the rest of the year.”
He’s more bullish on growth stocks as leaders in the next leg of this rally than he is on value, despite a recent uptick in that corner of the market. “The economy is doing fine and the fundamentals for stocks moving higher are still intact,” he said.
As a reminder, value stocks are those believed to be undervalued in the market, while their growth rivals are those that are expected to see faster-than-average earnings and revenue growth.
Watch his interview:
For now, stocks aren’t quite on board with his call.
The market
The Dow DJIA, +0.09% , S&P SPX, +0.07% and Nasdaq COMP, +0.04% are pitching lower, thanks in part to some dreadful Eurozone manufacturing sentiment data. Europe stocks SXXP, -0.80% are selling off in response. Oil US:CLV19 has pared gains, while investors are piling into gold GCZ19, +0.98% and the dollar DXY, +0.17% is up. Asia markets ADOW, +0.09% had a tough day.
Read: Costly repairs to Saudi Aramco oil facilities could take months, not weeks
The chart
Rob Hanna of the Quantifiable Edges blog says the week starting the third Friday in September, which we are about to enter, has a really good chance of being a down one for the S&P 500. With a few exceptions, his chart that dates back to the 1960s shows that this tough week has consistently played out.
Here’s what would have happened if you had traded $100,000 over those years by buying the S&P SPX, +0.07% on the open after the third Friday of September, and then selling it at the end of the week:
The buzz
A bloc of WeWork directors is plotting a push to pressure Adam Neumann to step down as chief executive after a rocky week in which his alleged eccentric behavior came to light and the startup put its stock-market listing on hold.
An e-cigarette ban could have massive implications next year. “While parents may be concerned about e-cigarettes, the people who genuinely care about vaping as a voting issue so far outweighs the number of people Trump needs to win in 2020 that they are royally screwing themselves by doing this,” Paul Blair, the director of strategic initiatives at Americans for Tax Reform, explained to Axios.
Indonesian investigators have found design and oversight lapses played a key role in the crash of a Boeing BA, -0.18% 737 MAX jet in October, sources told the Wall Street Journal. They also said the investigation also identified a string of pilot errors and maintenance mistakes as causal factors.
The stat
150,000 — That’s how many holidaymakers, are stranded overseas after U.K. travel agent Thomas Cook ceased trading as talks failed to produce a funding lifeline.
Read: These fabulous posters tell the storied history of Thomas Cook
The quote
“Trump deserves to be investigated. He is violating every basic norm of a president. You should be asking him the question, why is he on the phone with a foreign leader trying to intimidate a foreign leader, if that’s what happened” — Joe Biden, weighing in on the latest White House controversy.
Mitt Romney echoes his concern and President Trump chimed in as well:
The economy
New York Fed President John Williams is due to speak in what will be closely followed markets. On the data front, the Chicago Fed national activity index for August is due. Later in the week, notable numbers include August new home sales and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP.
The tweet
Random reads
Here’s what really went down at the Area 51 thing.
Hungry? Maybe try some of this vending-machine pork.
As if you needed an explanation for why New York Mayor Bill de Blasio’s presidential campaign failed.
“Righteousness porn” is hurting comedy, says Sarah Silverman.
The symmetry and chaos of the world’s megacities.
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