Despite eye-popping gains enjoyed by some of the biggest bitcoin and bitcoin-like assets in 2017, investors in the digital-currency expect even richer returns next year, according to a survey by LendEDU, a marketplace for private loans.
The poll was conducted online, surveying 565 American consumers over the span of five days in November. Combined with the fact that the majority of bitcoins is concentrated in the hands of a small minority of owners, the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
The survey found that 77% of current bitcoin holders thought that Bitcoin’s investment returns next year will exceed the returns of 2017, while about 75% of the respondents said they were planning on increasing their bitcoin holdings in 2018.
Behavioral science would tell you that such expectations are normal for humans. Investors find it hard to believe that something that has so done well in recent past would cease to extend those astronomical gains.
Indeed, bitcoin prices BTCUSD, +0.50% have risen more than 16-fold or about 1,500% since the start of the year. A similar increase from current level of more than $16,000, which translate to the digital currency ending 2018 at about $260,000.
Incidentally, that was approximately the price that bitcoin investors would be willing to sell their holdings, according to an earlier survey by the same firm.
Read: True believers need to see bitcoin near $200,000 before selling it
Forecasting what the price of bitcoin will be next year is impossible, but you can expect more people to buy their first bitcoins or fractions of thereof in the coming days, weeks, months, according to Cullen Roche, Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC.
“Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset that performed incredibly well this year, which is why there will be many people who will be rushing to buy it. They will be chasing future returns, but in reality they will be chasing future risks, as the asset is likely to crash at some point,” Roche said.
Roche thinks bitcoin price appreciation isn’t sustainable and will crash under its own weight.
“There is a huge level of speculation in bitcoin, as very low utility of this asset does not match the extremely high prices. At some point, people’s patience will run out and it will crash, whether it’s 50% or 90%—something that has happened before,” Roche said.
Opinion: Bitcoin is still a good bet as long as greater fools are buying
Such calls from Wall Street experts haven’t deterred die-hard bitcoin enthusiasts.
On the contrary, prices climbed seemingly in defiance after industry luminaries from J.P. MorganCEO Jamie Dimon and economist and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz warned people against buying it. Dimon referred to the current mania around cyber assets as a bubble and a fraud, while Stiglitz said it should be outlawed.
Meanwhile, about half of respondents surveyed by LendEDU said they would use their bitcoin to make at least one physical purchase next year, underscoring that most bitcoin holders treat it as an asset rather than its original purpose of decentralized currency, divorced from banks and other middlemen, or a payment method.
On whether bitcoin should be regulated, half who were surveyed answered said the asset shouldn’t garner more regulation, while about 30% said it should, while a fifth weren’t sure.
About 1 out of 3 were eager to cash out of some or all of their bitcoin investment, while 40% said they wouldn’t. Still, 28% said they weren’t sure.
Cashing out of bitcoin assets,however, may not be a cakewalk for some. Attempts to sell cryptoassets on popular digital currency site Coinbase must be done in phases if the investment is large, according to this individuals tweet.
I'm trying to sell some of my Bitcoin, and the whole process is so terrible, it's almost hilarious.
— Ted (@TedOnPrivacy) December 12, 2017