The list of questions is long for Andrew Bailey, the 58-year-old in charge of the U.K.’s powerful financial regulator.
But despite being just 18 months into the job — and having reigned over a decidedly turbulent year-and-a-half for financial services — the burning question for the father of two, who served for 31 years at the Bank of England, is what he will do next: Bailey is the hot favorite to succeed Mark Carney at the U.K.’s central bank.
Although Carney has confirmed he will not step down from his post as governor until the end of June next year, it is understood the Treasury will begin its search for a replacement for the Canadian this spring with an announcement made on a successor in the autumn.
The hiring process will be run by Sir Tom Scholar, the Treasury’s permanent secretary, who is “a great fan of Bailey”, according to a senior source who knows both men well. The consensus among those close to the Financial Conduct Authority chief and those familiar with the recruitment process is the BOE job is Bailey’s to lose.
Paul Sharma, the former deputy head of the Prudential Regulation Authority, the supervisory body that Bailey previously ran, told Financial News: “Given the range of Bailey’s knowledge, expertise and experience, I don’t think he has a rival. Yes, he would accept the job — he’s got a very strong public service ethic. He’s loyal and rightly proud of the Bank of England and would, I think, regard it as the pinnacle of his career.”
So what does Bailey, the son of a headmaster, have to say on the subject? The man, who is frequently described as quiet and cautious by those that know him, is typically tight lipped. But it is telling during our 45-minute interview at the FCA’s headquarters in Canary Wharf that he does not rule out the possibility of a move.
“You’ll be unsurprised to know this question comes up reasonably often,” says Bailey. “But I’ve got a job and, I have to be honest with you, I have never spent my time thinking about the one I want to do next. I didn’t expect to have this role here at the FCA and I’m really enjoying it. It’s a fascinating place to be, and so I don’t speculate on the future.”
Plenty around him are, however. A City veteran who studied alongside Bailey at Cambridge sums up the feeling among many commentators: “A quiet under-the-radar personality like Bailey would be perfect [for the Bank of England]. He is regarded as a safe pair of hands and someone who gets things done.”
Steering a course
It is those traits that brought Bailey to the FCA in the first place. His appointment came after his predecessor, Martin Wheatley, was ousted for being perceived in the Treasury as too hostile to banks. Wheatley had also angered the City’s insurance market when a botched press briefing triggered a dramatic fall in the share price of the U.K.’s major insurers.
Bailey has since steadied the ship, and even the meteoric rise of bitcoin BTCUSD, -5.14% and exchange traded funds do not rattle him. (They do not pose systemic risks, he says). But the Leicester native admits he has been fortunate to work under more normal market circumstances than those before him.
“I worked through the financial crisis, trying to deal with failing banks, and so I’ve seen a lot worse in terms of stress,” he says. “If we go back 10 years ago, that was a period that was stressful for all of us. You really didn’t know what was going to happen next.
“It doesn’t feel like that today. We are faced with a lot of activity, yes, and we are trying to do some very clear shaping of the organization, but in simple terms, it’s not like it was 10 years ago.”
An expanded version of this report appears on Financial News, where this story first appeared.
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