U.S. Treasury yields saw little change Tuesday, erasing an earlier rise as bidders snapped up an auction of two-year notes.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.92% was fractionally lower at 2.418%, a day after hitting its lowest level since Dec. 29, 2017. The yield on the two-year note TMUBMUSD02Y, +1.28% rose 1 basis point to 2.264%, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.44% rose less than half a basis point to 2.872%. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.
The Treasury Department sold $40 billion of two-year notes, with strong demand. Treasurys reversed some earlier weakness, pulling yields back from session highs after the sale.
“This was a very strong auction, especially considering the fact that two-year notes have richened significantly since last week’s FOMC meeting and they are now inverted to bills,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note, referring to the three-month Treasury bill yield that rose slightly to 2.459%.
An inversion of the longer end of the yield curve, with the 10-year yield falling below the three-month bill, was blamed for a selloff in stocks on Friday. Such a phenomenon is viewed as a reliable recession indicator, though analysts have noted that stocks, historically, have tended to hold up well in the months after an inversion first takes hold.
The pause in the government-bond rally Tuesday came as U.S. stocks held on to a rebound after a pair of shaky days for assets perceived as risky.
Read: The yield curve inverted—here are 5 things investors need to know
Declines in yields follow the Federal Reserve’s signal at its March 18-19 meeting that it wasn’t likely to raise rates in 2019, downshifting projections for rate increases to zero from the two indicated in its December forecast. On top of that, market participants say that the management of the central bank’s balance sheet may curtail debt supplies. Both projections support higher buying in debt, driving yields lower.
“The shift in expectations comes after the Fed last week ruled out further rate increases in 2019, reinforcing its dovish stance,” wrote analysts at XM in a Tuesday research note.
Brexit was also in focus Tuesday, after U.K. lawmakers wrested control of the process from Prime Minister Theresa May in a vote late Monday. Now, Parliament is bracing for a fresh round of votes to help resolve Britain’s exit from the European Union, which had originally been set for a March 29 deadline.
U.K. 10-year Treasury notes TMBMKGB-10Y, +2.28% , also known as gilts, were at 1.011%, little changed from Monday’s levels.
On the data front, U.S. housing starts fell almost 9% in February and remained well below year-ago levels. Separately, the national Case-Shiller house-price index rose 4.3% in the three months ended in January.
The Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index dropped to 124.1 from 131.4 in February, its second-lowest rate in a year.
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