Abrdn's Ben Ritchie: Dynamic Companies Are Going Cheap In The UK If You Know Where To Look

Today's younger generation of investors will not even remember the heady days of the 1980s, when the UK's oil-rich stock market boomed.

Brexit is never far from the narrative when we talk about the catalyst for the changing dynamics of UK company valuations, though the landscape was shifting before then.

Investors can always learn much from looking back, but it is crucial that we face forward and see the reasons for optimism despite the gloomy headlines.

Value of UK venture capital funding deals halves in 2023

A host of dynamic companies still call the UK home. If you analyse the longer-term returns available from owning the FTSE 250 (ex Investment Companies), they have been world leading - comfortably beating the MSCI World Index and matching the S&P 500 since 2000.

In my view, the simple price-to-earnings discount analysis has much to do with both the mix of the market and the quality of the mega cap companies available.

But even so, investors fretting about the valuation discount seems odd.

The cheaper the stocks, the better the future returns available from investing today.

The UK market has been showing some indications of that coming through over the past 18 months, being the strongest performing major global market in sterling terms.

We prefer to look at individual stock opportunities and the potential returns available.

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If investors are selective, there are a number of very strong investment cases in the UK with the capacity to deliver superior outcomes. For example, London Stock Exchange Group, RELX - the data analytics company - and financial services provider Prudential all appear to be strong businesses with excellent long-term prospects.

All are exposed to attractive levels of structural growth, be that growth in data usage or demographic trends, that do not depend on the economic cycle.

But even among those companies more susceptible to cyclicality, there are definitely signs of life. Rising energy prices have driven bumper profits and cashflows for energy and utility companies, to which the UK has significant exposure. On the other hand, retailers and construction-related companies have faced higher costs, tighter margins and lower sales volumes.

Consumers have been hit with rising energy bills plus food price inflation. With interest rates likely close to a peak, we see attractive contrarian opportunities in the likes of housebuilder Taylor Wimpey and building products manufacturer Marshalls.

Both facing tough market conditions, but both offering compelling long-term valuations for those prepared to be patient.

The energy crisis has placed further emphasis on the importance of investing in the energy transition.

The longer your time horizon as an investor, the more the energy transition matters, and its importance is growing fast.

This transition will present both compelling investment opportunities and significant risks. The last 18 months have seen investors de-emphasise their commitment to sustainability to instead pursue returns, but this will change.

Political, regulatory and social risks are increasing and the result will be stranded assets and economically unviable businesses.

Peterson Institute: UK economy to decline in 2023 and 2024 as US and eurozone grow

On the other hand, the positive opportunities to invest in companies exposed to significant potential growth are attractive.

This includes energy efficiency and renewables companies from developers of wind farms such as SSE and retailers of utility services like Telecom Plus, to firms like Halma, which offer critical energy efficient engineering products.

As companies navigate the energy crisis volatility, share buybacks, mergers and private equity takeovers have all increased. Indeed, turning to the latter, the amount of capital available to private equity has expanded significantly leading to a far wider range of targets than before.

Less public scrutiny on operations, potentially far more generous financial rewards for management, more flexibility around ownership structure and less onerous demands on external reporting all combine to make private ownership potentially attractive for listed companies.

This does appear to be a trend affecting the UK more than other markets, most likely stemming from a political approach that is traditionally less interventionist, a listings structure that more easily facilitates corporate transactions and a relative lack of family and government ownership.

For investors, takeover bids are always a double-edged sword.

There is normally a significant premium offered, which boosts short-term performance, but on the other hand, when a valuable asset is removed from a portfolio, this removes exposure to a sector or a trend that can be hard to replicate.

A recent example would be Aveva, the industrial software company. Here, the premium paid was relatively modest, and there is a very limited choice of other software businesses in the UK market to access, meaning the exposure cannot be replaced.

For long-term investors in the UK market, we continue to be extremely positive about the opportunities.

There is a sizeable pool of great companies to choose from, alongside undemanding valuations and the potential for a high level of earnings growth. You might ask - what is not to like about this combination?

Ben Ritchie is head of developed market equities at abrdn

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