China's Demographic Crisis: Can Reducing The Marriage Age Reverse Falling Birth Rates?

China is facing a demographic crisis, with birth rates plummeting and an aging population threatening long-term economic stability. In an attempt to address this issue, a proposal has emerged to lower the legal marriage age, aiming to encourage earlier family formation and higher birth rates. However, while this idea might seem like a quick fix, deeper societal and economic factors play a significant role in shaping China’s population trends.

The key question remains: Can simply reducing the marriage age reverse the ongoing population decline, or is the challenge far more complex?

Understanding China’s Demographic Decline

Falling Birth Rates and Population Aging

China’s birth rate has been on a steady decline for years. In 2023, the country’s population shrank for the second consecutive year, marking a worrying trend. The fertility rate remains well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, with many young couples choosing to have fewer children—or none at all. This has created a labor shortage and increased pressure on the shrinking working-age population to support retirees, putting strain on the economy.

Previous Policy Measures to Address the Issue

In response to the declining birth rate, China has already implemented several policy changes. The notorious One-Child Policy was scrapped in 2015, followed by the introduction of a Two-Child Policy and later a Three-Child Policy. Despite these changes, birth rates have continued to fall. The government has also rolled out incentives such as tax breaks, housing subsidies, and extended parental leave to encourage larger families. However, these efforts have not led to the population rebound that policymakers had hoped for.

The Proposal to Lower the Marriage Age

Current Marriage Laws in China

Currently, the legal marriage age in China is 22 for men and 20 for women. This law was originally designed to promote later marriages and curb population growth under the One-Child Policy era. The new proposal suggests lowering the marriage age in hopes that younger couples will have children earlier, helping to boost the birth rate.

Arguments in Favor of Lowering the Marriage Age

Supporters of the proposal argue that reducing the legal marriage age could encourage earlier family formation. This, in turn, could lead to higher birth rates, as younger couples may have more children over their lifetime. Proponents also point out that many countries with higher fertility rates have lower legal marriage ages, making this a potentially effective demographic strategy. Additionally, an increase in births could ease labor shortages and support economic growth.

Counterarguments and Concerns

However, critics argue that simply lowering the marriage age will do little to address the real reasons behind China’s declining birth rate. Social norms have shifted, with many young people prioritizing careers, personal freedom, and financial stability over early marriage and parenthood. Additionally, economic pressures, such as rising housing costs and expensive education, discourage large families.

There is also concern that lowering the marriage age could negatively impact young women’s education and career opportunities, reinforcing traditional gender roles that many have sought to move away from. Critics warn that without broader structural changes, such as improved childcare support and workplace flexibility, lowering the marriage age could be ineffective or even counterproductive.

Broader Societal and Economic Factors Affecting Birth Rates

Changing Attitudes Toward Marriage and Family

Modern Chinese society has moved away from the traditional expectation of early marriage and childbearing. Young people are delaying marriage or choosing not to marry at all. The preference for single lifestyles, the rise of cohabitation without marriage, and shifting family values have contributed to declining birth rates, making legal marriage age a relatively minor factor in the bigger picture.

Economic Pressures and Work-Life Balance

Financial concerns remain a major deterrent to having children. Urban living costs are high, and raising a child in China—especially in major cities—requires significant financial investment in housing, education, and healthcare. Additionally, demanding work schedules and lack of work-life balance discourage many couples from expanding their families. Without addressing these fundamental economic barriers, policies aimed at boosting birth rates are unlikely to succeed.

Gender Equality and Women's Role in Society

Women in China have gained greater educational and professional opportunities, leading many to delay marriage and childbirth. The rising participation of women in the workforce has led to a conflict between career ambitions and family expectations. Without better workplace policies—such as improved maternity benefits, better childcare options, and flexible work arrangements—many women will continue to choose career stability over early marriage and large families.

Conclusion: Is Lowering the Marriage Age the Answer?

While lowering the marriage age may be a symbolic gesture toward addressing China’s demographic challenges, it is unlikely to be a decisive solution. The declining birth rate is driven by deep-rooted economic, social, and cultural factors that go beyond the legal framework of marriage.

For China to effectively address its population decline, policymakers must focus on broader reforms, including reducing financial burdens on families, improving childcare support, and creating more family-friendly workplace policies. Without these fundamental changes, lowering the marriage age will likely have little impact on reversing the demographic crisis.

The future of China’s population growth will depend on whether the government can create an environment where having children is not just encouraged but also financially and socially feasible for young couples.

Author: Gerardine Lucero