Phil Vickery: More Restaurant Cost Rises Are 'scary'

The prospect of further rises in costs in restaurants is "scary", according to celebrity restauranteur Phil Vickery.

The former England rugby captain, who runs a restaurant in Cheltenham, added "everyone's affected in this business".

He spoke as a survey showed half of all pubs, restaurants and catering firms said that unless their costs fall and customers spend more, they will have to close within a year.

The report spoke to 150 directors of pubs, restaurants and catering firms.

The findings came from research by Creed Foodservice, a company that supplies 3,500 UK hospitality firms.

Philip de Ternant, of Creed, said: "It's a stark reminder of how hard it is out there in hospitality right now."

Companies described a "double-crunch" of rising food costs and falling customer spending.

Unless their costs fall and income from sales rises, 86% of the hospitality companies said they would have to close within three years.

Half said they would have to shut their doors in 12 months if things did not improve.

Food prices have been rising steadily for over a year, with some huge increases for hospitality firms.

Overall, food was 18.3% more expensive in May 2023 than May 2022, according to the latest government statistics.

Sugar rose 49%, cheese was up 33%, even eggs were 28% more than the previous year.

Mr de Ternant explained how the hospitality firms he serves were struggling to cope with this.

He said: "The vast majority of operators, 85%, told us they will need to increase their menu prices to stay financially viable. However, 83% are worried that if they do this it will alienate consumers and put them off visiting their establishment.

"They feel stuck between a rock and hard place."

One of the pubs his lorries deliver to is the Exmouth Arms, in Cheltenham. A classic English pub with a nice garden, it is doing a steady lunch trade when I popped by on a Wednesday. People are enjoying burgers and salads, light lunches and a few drinks in the sunshine.

It is in the posher end of what is a prosperous Cotswold spa town. Yet the owner's ambitions for 2023 are low.

"Our plan for this year is just to survive," Mike Huysinga tells me.

Despite the widely reported cost of living crisis, he says people are still coming out to socialise and celebrate. But they order a little less, often with fewer drinks and no pudding.

And all his costs are up.

"Potatoes are up, oil's up, meat is up," he explains.

"Even ketchup and mayonnaise have doubled in the last year. Wages have gone up, and if you want a chef at short notice, the agencies charge £35-an-hour. A year ago, that would have been £20."

But Mr Huysinga is wary of increasing his prices when so many customers already face rising mortgage payments, and higher prices on everything they buy.

I met Mike at an informal meeting of Creed's customers and suppliers. Pub landlords and restauranteurs chat to drinks producers and butchers. There are people offering innovative ice-creams, and classic Cotswold cakes.

Everyone has a tasty product, many of them impacted by global news events.

Julia Kessler co-founded a new soft drinks brand, called 'Nix-Kix'. They make their product in Austria, "so Brexit made all our imports to the UK complicated," Ms Kessler said.

Most of their customers are in hospitality, so the Covid lockdowns hit the firm hard too.

Then the war in Ukraine started, and things got even worse.

Ms Kessler explained: "We found the aluminium for our cans all came from Ukraine, then our energy bill doubled. So we have been feeling the squeeze in all directions."

Behind a huge barbecue pit I spot the former rugby pro Phil Vickery, who played for Gloucester and captained England. Since retirement, he has run a successful restaurant in Cheltenham. Surely, I ask him, a celebrity chef is immune to the cost of living crisis?

"No chance," he chides me. "Everyone's affected in this business. And some of the price increases that haven't come through yet are really scary. It's going to be tough, and things are going to be difficult for a while yet."

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