Here's How A Trump Presidency Could Change The Tech Industry

Kettle Despite countless warnings that the US presidential election would lead to a months-long battle, with a decisive win by Donald Trump and his party, we can immediately look ahead to how the next four years of Republican rule might change the tech industry.

His new administration isn't going to land until January 20, and who is going to be part of that regime, and what they intend to do, is gradually emerging. For instance, Trump wants super-billionaire Elon Musk, whose business empire clashes with and relies on US government bodies, to help oversee spending by US government bodies; and a Fox News TV host and Army veteran to serve as his Secretary of Defense. Matt Gaetz might well end up as Attorney General.

Rhetoric on the reelection campaign trail doesn't necessarily translate into action either, but may well do, so what we guess we're trying to say is that anything could happen. We've tried to make sense of it all for this latest Kettle episode, which you can watch below.

Youtube Video

Joining host Iain Thomson is Thomas Claburn, Brandon Vigliarolo, and Chris Williams. For those who prefer just audio, the Kettle is available via RSS and MP3, Apple, Amazon, and Spotify.

For those who prefer words, your humble vulture will expand upon the theme here.

It's back to an era like it hasn't been seen since Hearst

In short, the technology world, which is no stranger to traditional lobbying, is going to have to adapt again to Trump's approach to governing, and in doing so, potentially find itself playing a greater role in people's lives. We're talking about a president that in one moment dreams of jailing social media CEOs and opponents, and in another, is said to be remarkably guided by flattery. It's not impossible to imagine how easily mega-corporations and billionaires can get what they want from the reality TV star (less interference, less tax, etc.) Exhibit A: Elon Musk.

As Chris Farmer, founder of VC firm Signalfire, put it to The Register, tech "is going to have to get more political to navigate" Trump's second term, "and make sure the administration's policies are more coherent."

"I think tech is going to be a louder voice in the room and I think that's a new era," he added. "It's back to an era like it hasn't been seen since Hearst."

Predictions

First, we can project that regulatory agencies will be shaken up, particularly the FCC and FTC. The current FTC boss should be polishing up her resume because while Lina Khan has a fan in Vice President-elect JD Vance for increasing competition in markets, she's not popular with either Republican or Democratic mega-donors.

That shake-up could lead to deregulation across the federal government, which would suit Elon, biz bosses, and supporters of Trump.

I think they'll be less inclined for the government to interfere with business and so some of the antitrust types of things

In practice, this could lead to easier, thus more, mergers as well as broader industry consolidation, with fewer efforts to make fines for lawbreaking actually punitive rather than being an administrative cost.

"I think the administration will be less inclined for the government to interfere with business and some of the antitrust types of things," Farmer said. "But the policy is inconsistent. So it's a bit hard to judge, as Trump has historically tended to act on the basis of who was the last person to whisper in his ear."

That may be good news for businesses like Google and Meta, which had been facing competitive questions from American regulators. The urge to break up these super-corps may ease – though on the other hand, the tech titans' "wokeness" or the like may lead to some kind of punishment or retaliation anyway.

Trump has been threatening a tough crackdown on what's seen as Silicon Valley's censorship of Americans.

The FCC is going to be an interesting case. For years, the agency has given billions to Big Broadband to wire up rural America, and the telcos have cheerfully taken the money and done arguably very little. If Musk pulls the right strings with his new commander-in-chief, we could see the Tesla supremo's SpaceX broadband satellite wing Starlink getting hundreds of millions of dollars in government subsidies after all to supply internet across the country. No wonder Elon was such a fan during the election campaign.

Also, it's likely that we're going to see some big changes in the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Dogecoin-pumping Musk and many other key Trump backers have been betting big on digicash, and crypto values have boomed since the election result.