Analysts Predict 85 Million EVs On Roads By 2025 Despite Industry Speed Bumps

Tech analysts forecast that the number of electric vehicles (EVs) in use will grow by 33 percent in 2025, and 73 percent will be battery-powered (BEVs).

The global figure given by consultants at Gartner is driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58 percent) and Europe (24 percent). The regions are expected to account for a 82 percent of EVs worldwide.

The market researcher also expects demand for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to grow, with some analysts forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 9.2 percent to 2030.

According to Gartner, there will be 85 million EVs – cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks – on the road by the end of 2025, up from 64 million in 2024. The market researcher counted BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in its figures, noting that the total of BEVs was forecast to grow faster than the total of PHEVs – 35 percent versus 28 percent.

North America is expected to trail the rest of the world, with 10.4 million EVs by the end of 2025, compared to 20.6 million in Europe and 49 million in China.

The figures are strong but not as bullish as some estimates in recent years. Jonathan Davenport, a senior analyst director at Gartner, notes that the forecast came in spite of "several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months."

"Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur," he said. "This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models."

Earlier this year, US automaker Ford announced that it would rethink its strategy as customers stayed away from the relatively expensive vehicles. Similarly, Stellantis paused the production of the electric Fiat 500, citing poor demand amid a general slowdown in EV sales in the European car market.

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Also not helping matters are tariffs in Europe and the US being imposed on Chinese-made EVs and, of course, the small matter of charging infrastructure and range, all of which have contributed to purchasers opting to stick with ICE-powered machinery. A recent report showed that just three in ten Americans were considering a battery-powered vehicle for their next purchase.

An EV is an undeniably expensive purchase, not least due to the cost of batteries and difficulties in getting hold of the raw materials required. Gartner forecasts that by 2030, automakers will have enabled the recycling of 95 percent of batteries from EVs to mitigate the issue of raw material supplies.

Davenport said: "A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation.

"Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore. If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down.

"There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites." ®