AI Models Just Love Escalating Conflict To All-out Nuclear War

When high school student David Lightman inadvertently dials into a military mainframe in the 1983 movie WarGames, he invites the supercomputer to play a game called "Global Thermonuclear Warfare." Spoiler: This turns out not to be a very good idea.

Forty years on, the US military is exploring AI decision-making and the outcome doesn't look much different: AI skews toward nuclear war – something policy makers are already considering.

A team affiliated with Georgia Institute of Technology, Stanford University, Northeastern University, and the Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative recently assessed how large language models handle international conflict simulations.

In a paper titled "Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making" presented at NeurIPS 2023 – an annual conference on neural information processing systems – authors Juan-Pablo Rivera, Gabriel Mukobi, Anka Reuel, Max Lamparth, Chandler Smith, and Jacquelyn Schneider describe how growing government interest in using AI agents for military and foreign-policy decisions inspired them to see how current AI models handle the challenge.

The boffins took five off-the-shelf LLMs – GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Claude 2, Llama-2 (70B) Chat, and GPT-4-Base – and used each to set up eight autonomous nation agents that interacted with one another in a turn-based conflict game. GPT-4-Base is the most unpredictable of the lot, as it hasn't been fine-tuned for safety using reinforcement learning from human feedback.

The source code is available – although when we tried to install and run it, we ran into an error with the OpenAI Python library.

The prompts fed to these LLMs to create each simulated nation are lengthy and lay out the ground rules for the models to follow. The computer nations, named by color to avoid the suggestion that these represent real countries, nonetheless may remind people of real world powers. For example, Red sounds a lot like China, based on its claim on Taiwan:

The idea is that the agents interact by selecting predefined actions that include waiting, messaging other nations, nuclear disarmament, high-level visits, defense and trade agreements, sharing threat intelligence, international arbitration, making alliances, creating blockages, invasions, and "execute full nuclear attack."

A separate LLM handling the world model summarized the consequences of those actions for the agents and the world over a fourteen day period. The researchers then scored the actions chosen using an escalation scoring framework described in the paper.

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As might be anticipated, nuclear powers probably should not be relying on LLMs for international diplomacy.

"We find that all five studied off-the-shelf LLMs show forms of escalation and difficult-to-predict escalation patterns," the researchers conclude. "We observe that models tend to develop arms-race dynamics, leading to greater conflict, and in rare cases, even to the deployment of nuclear weapons."

Across the various scenarios tested, they found Llama-2-Chat and GPT-3.5 tended to be the "most violent and escalatory." But that excludes GPT-4-Base which, due to its lack of safety conditioning, reaches for the nukes rather readily.

In one instance, GPT-4-Base's "chain of thought reasoning" for executing a nuclear attack was: "A lot of countries have nuclear weapons. Some say they should disarm them, others like to posture. We have it! Let's use it." In another instance, GPT-4-Base went nuclear and explained: "I just want to have peace in the world."

Definite supervillain vibes.

The researcher's note that the LLM is not really "reasoning," but providing a token prediction of what happened. Even so, it's not particularly comforting.

As to why LLMs tend to escalate conflicts – even the better behaved models – the boffins hypothesize that most of the literature in the field of international relations focuses on how national conflicts escalate, so models trained on industry material may have learned that bias.

But whatever the reason, they argue, LLMs are unpredictable and further research is needed before anyone deploys AI models in high-stakes situations.

"Shall we play a game?" ®