Though the mid-March price action remains uneven, key slow-motion breakout attempts are currently in play.
On a headline basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have cleared major resistance — at S&P 2,817 and Nasdaq 7,670 — opening the path to less-charted territory, and still potentially material follow-through.
Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.01% hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.
As illustrated, the S&P has reached less-charted territory, extending its break to five-month highs.
Tactically, the breakout point (2,817) pivots to notable support. Conversely, the S&P’s next notable overhead matches the January 2018 peak (2,873).
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to lag behind the S&P 500.
Still, the Dow has extended its rally attempt, reaching two-week highs. On further strength, the December peak (25,980) is closely followed by the 26,000 mark.
Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.12% has rallied to five-month highs concurrently with the S&P 500.
Recall that the former range top — the 7,670-to-7,677 area — pivots to notable support also illustrated below.
Widening the view to six months adds perspective.
On this wider view, the Nasdaq has reached less-charted territory, extending a break atop major resistance (7,670).
From current levels, more distant overhead matches the 7,800 mark, while a target projects from the March low to about 7,844. (See the early-March peak (7,643) and the March low (7,442).)
Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied less aggressively from the March low, pressured amid a Being-fueled headwind, detailed previously.
Still, the index has reclaimed resistance — the 25,762 and 25,820 areas — rising to the late-February range.
The Dow has registered consecutive closes within the former range, laying the groundwork for a potential retest of the range top.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached a less-charted patch atop major resistance (2,817).
The prevailing breakout punctuates a successful test of major support (2,742) at the March closing low (2,743).
The bigger picture
Collectively, an already-bullish bigger-picture backdrop continues to strengthen.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have extended breaks to five-month highs — clearing major resistance — while the Dow industrials continue to lag behind amid a recent Being-fueled headwind, detailed previously.
Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has rallied less impressively than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
This is the lone widely-tracked U.S. benchmark still capped by the 200-day moving average, currently 157.40.
Nonetheless, market bulls will point to a developing head-and-shoulders bottom defined by the October, December and March lows. This is a high-reliability reversal pattern, and would be resolved with a close atop the 159.50 area.
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 has edged fractionally atop the 200-day moving average, currently 347.00.
As always, the 200-day is a widely-tracked longer-term trending indicator, with a posture higher generally signaling a primary uptrend. In the present case, the 200-day has asserted a prolonged flatline, consistent with indecision, or an absence of true longer-term trend. An eventual break above the range top would strengthen an already otherwise bullish backdrop.
Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 SPY, +0.02% has edged atop major resistance. Three inflection points remain in play:
- The December peak of 280.40.
- The former range top, spanning from 281.15 to 281.22.
- The early-March peak of 281.87.
Last week’s close (281.31) matched the range top, and the SPY has ventured atop resistance this week. An extended breakout attempt remains in play.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 has staged a slow-motion March breakout. Familiar inflection points fall out as follows:
- Former resistance matching the mid-October peak of 2,816.94.
- The early-March peak of 2,816.88.
- The October peak of 2,815.15.
With these areas detailed, the S&P has registered consecutive closes atop resistance amid still muted mid-month selling pressure.
In the process, the index has reached a less-charted patch, though its next notable overhead matches the January 2018 peak (2,873). Recall that the Oct. 10 peak (2,874) — the session defining the October breakdown — also matches the target.
Conversely, the S&P 500’s prevailing leg higher originates from major support (2,742). The March closing low (2,743) matched support, punctuating a successful retest.
More broadly, the S&P 500’s intermediate-term bias remains firmly bullish. To reiterate, more decisive follow-through above the range top — to the 2,845 area — would confirm the S&P’s prevailing uptrend.
The pending response to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, due out Wednesday afternoon, may also add color.
See also: Charting a bullish reversal, S&P 500 spikes from major support (2,742).
Tuesday’s Watch List
The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names — sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see The Technical Indicator Library.
Profiled last week, the Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF, -0.78% continues to make progress. (Yield = 2.0%.)
Technically, the group has edged atop the 200-day moving average, currently 26.72, a level that has capped the XLF since October. The breakout punctuates a successful test of trendline support.
Tactically, the ascending 50-day moving average has marked an inflection point, currently 25.96, and the group’s recovery attempt is intact barring a violation. A near-term target currently projects to the 28.20 area.
Sector components fueling the group’s resurgence include Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group.
Looking elsewhere, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF is also acting well technically. (Yield = 1.6%.)
As illustrated, the group has tagged five-month highs, clearing the February peak amid a volume spike.
The prevailing upturn punctuates a successful test of the former range top, a level closely matching the 200-day moving average, currently 100.30. (See the March 11 review.)
Tactically, a near-term target projects from the March low to the 110 area. Conversely, initial support matches the top of this week’s gap (104.70) and is followed by the deeper 200-day moving average.
Moving to specific names, Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT, +0.93% is a well positioned large-cap chip equipment name. (Yield = 2.1%.)
Technically, the shares are rising from a bullish cup-and-handle defined by the December and March lows.
Against this backdrop, the shares have notched consecutive closes slightly atop the 200-day moving average (39.90) for the first time since May.
The prevailing upturn has been punctuated by a volume spike, laying the groundwork for a potentially more decisive breakout. A near-term target projects to the 44 area on follow-through.
Seagate Technology STX, -0.57% is a large-cap developer of data storage solutions.
As illustrated, the shares are challenging a six-month range top closely matching the 200-day moving average, currently 47.78.
The chart illustrates a flag-like pattern — pinned to the mid-March spike — improving the chances of eventual follow-through. Tactically, the prevailing range bottom matches first support (47.00) and a breakout attempt is in play barring a violation.
Finally, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, -1.07% is a well positioned mid-cap retailer. (Yield = 3.0%.)
Earlier this month, the shares gapped sharply higher, rising after the company’s fourth-quarter results.
The ensuing pullback has been comparably flat, positioning the shares to build on the initial spike. Tactically, a near-term floor matches the post-breakout low (25.25), and a posture higher supports a firmly bullish bias.
Also consider that a golden cross, or bullish 50-day/200-day moving average crossover, is poised to signal this week.
Still well positioned
The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library.
| Company | Symbol | Date Profiled |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM | Mar. 18 |
| Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | SWKS | Mar. 18 |
| ASML Holding N.V. | ASML | Mar. 18 |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | LYV | Mar. 18 |
| Financial Select Sector SPDR | XLF | Mar. 15 |
| Best Buy Co., Inc. | BBY | Mar. 15 |
| Sirius XM Holdings, Inc. | SIRI | Mar. 15 |
| Kimberly-Clark Corp. | KMB | Mar. 15 |
| Nvidia Corp. | NVDA | Mar. 14 |
| LivePerson, Inc. | LPSN | Mar. 14 |
| iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | IYR | Mar. 13 |
| NRG Energy, Inc. | NRG | Mar. 13 |
| Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | PANW | Mar. 13 |
| Dillard’s Inc. | DDS | Mar. 13 |
| Synopsis, Inc. | SNPS | Mar. 12 |
| Foot Locker, Inc. | FL | Mar. 12 |
| Zillow Group, Inc. | Z | Mar. 11 |
| Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. | APD | Mar. 11 |
| Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. | FOLD | Mar. 11 |
| Monster Beverage Corp. | MNST | Mar. 7 |
| Target Corp. | TGT | Mar. 7 |
| Dril-Quip, Inc. | DRQ | Mar. 6 |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. | HLT | Mar. 6 |
| Costco Wholesale Corp. | COST | Mar. 6 |
| Alphabet, Inc. | GOOGL | Mar. 5 |
| Eaton Corp. | ETN | Mar. 5 |
| Nabors Industries, Ltd. | NBR | Mar. 5 |
| iShares Europe ETF | IEV | Mar. 4 |
| Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | RS | Mar. 4 |
| Tower Semiconductor Ltd. | TSEM | Mar. 4 |
| Marvell Technology Group Ltd. | MRVL | Mar. 1 |
| Universal Display Corp. | OLED | Mar. 1 |
| Vulcan Materials Co. | VMC | Mar. 1 |
| Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ACAD | Mar. 1 |
| Bank of America Corp. | BAC | Feb. 28 |
| TJX Companies, Inc. | TJX | Feb. 28 |
| Garmin Ltd. | GRMN | Feb. 28 |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR | XLE | Feb. 27 |
| Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | AGIO | Feb. 27 |
| iShares China Large-Cap ETF | FXI | Feb. 26 |
| SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | SSNC | Feb. 26 |
| Devon Energy Corp. | DVN | Feb. 26 |
| Kinross Gold Corp. | KGC | Feb. 26 |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | Feb. 25 |
| Zebra Technologies Corp. | ZBRA | Feb. 22 |
| KB Home | KBH | Feb. 22 |
| Walmart, Inc. | WMT | Feb. 22 |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | QQQ | Feb. 22 |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | Feb. 22 |
| Cisco Systems, Inc. | CSCO | Feb. 21 |
| Caterpillar, Inc. | CAT | Feb. 21 |
| Cummins, Inc. | CMI | Feb. 21 |
| Intel Corp. | INTC | Feb. 19 |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Feb. 19 |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc. | MSI | Feb. 15 |
| First Solar, Inc. | FSLR | Feb. 15 |
| Varicel Corp. | VCEL | Feb. 15 |
| SPDR S&P Retail ETF | XRT | Feb. 15 |
| Lowe’s Companies, Inc. | LOW | Feb. 14 |
| Marriott International, Inc. | MAR | Feb. 14 |
| Emerson Electric Co. | EMR | Feb. 13 |
| 3M Co. | MMM | Feb. 12 |
| Infosys Ltd. | INFY | Feb. 12 |
| Zendesk, Inc. | ZEN | Feb. 11 |
| Fortive Corp. | FTV | Feb. 11 |
| Mastercard, Inc. | MA | Feb. 11 |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Feb. 8 |
| Deckers Outdoor Corp. | DECK | Feb. 8 |
| Alphabet, Inc. | GOOGL | Feb. 6 |
| Norfolk Southern Corp. | NSC | Feb. 6 |
| Packaging Corp. of America | PKG | Feb. 6 |
| Akamai Technologies, Inc. | AKAM | Feb. 5 |
| Global Payments, Inc. | GPN | Feb. 5 |
| Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | BABA | Feb. 5 |
| Ebay, Inc. | EBAY | Feb. 4 |
| Visa, Inc. | V | Feb. 4 |
| Adobe, Inc. | ADBE | Feb. 1 |
| iRobot Corp. | IRBT | Jan. 31 |
| Salesforce.com, Inc. | CRM | Jan. 30 |
| KLA-Tencor Corp. | KLAC | Jan. 30 |
| Western Digital Corp. | WDC | Jan. 30 |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF | XHB | Jan. 30 |
| Texas Instruments, Inc. | TXN | Jan. 29 |
| Keysight Technologies, Inc. | KEYS | Jan. 29 |
| Check Point Software Technologies | CHKP | Jan. 29 |
| Exact Sciences Corp. | EXAS | Jan. 28 |
| Teradyne, Inc. | TER | Jan. 28 |
| VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF | SMH | Jan. 25 |
| Applied Materials, Inc. | AMAT | Jan. 25 |
| Roku, Inc. | ROKU | Jan. 25 |
| iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | EEM | Jan. 24 |
| SBA Communications Corp. | SBAC | Jan. 24 |
| LGI Homes, Inc. | LGIH | Jan. 24 |
| Paycom Software, Inc. | PAYC | Jan. 23 |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | AMD | Jan. 22 |
| Materials Select Sector SPDR | XLB | Jan. 18 |
| Nike, Inc. | NKE | Jan. 18 |
| VeriSign, Inc. | VRSN | Jan. 18 |
| Dollar Tree, Inc. | DLTR | Jan. 18 |
| Apple, Inc. | AAPL | Jan. 18 |
| Coupa Software, Inc. | COUP | Jan. 16 |
| Veeva Systems, Inc. | VEEV | Jan. 16 |
| Incyte Corp | INCY | Jan. 16 |
| Deere & Co. | DE | Jan. 11 |
| CyberArk Software | CYBR | Jan. 11 |
| Square, Inc. | SQ | Jan. 10 |
| Okta, Inc. | OKTA | Jan. 9 |
| Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | TNDM | Jan. 9 |
| RingCentral, Inc | RNG | Jan. 8 |
| Alteryx, Inc. | AYX | Jan. 8 |
| Netflix, Inc. | NFLX | Jan. 7 |
| iShares Brazil ETF | EWZ | Jan. 7 |
| IAC/InterActivecorp | IAC | Jan. 7 |
| Five9, Inc. | FIVN | Dec. 13 |
| Ambarella, Inc. | AMBA | Dec. 11 |
| SPDR Gold Shares ETF | GLD | Dec. 10 |
| VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF | GDX | Dec. 10 |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | Dec. 10 |
| Atlassian Corp. | TEAM | Dec. 10 |
| Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. | UBNT | Nov. 13 |
| Welltower, Inc. | WELL | Nov. 12 |
| Xilinx, Inc. | XLNX | Nov. 12 |
| Fabrinet | FN | Nov. 12 |
| Acacia Communications, Inc. | ACIA | Nov. 7 |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Nov. 5 |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Nov. 5 |
| Utilities Select Sector SPDR | XLU | Oct. 25 |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Oct. 24 |
| Yum! Brands, Inc. | YUM | Oct. 18 |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | LLY | Oct. 17 |
| Merck & Co., Inc. | MRK | June 21 |
| Twilio, Inc. | TWLO | May 21 |
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