The second half of the year starts today, and look out above!
The Fly, the anonymous wordsmith who left Wall Street decades ago and now runs the iBankCoin blog, says we’re about to witness the “total decapitation of the shorts” thanks to the announced pause in the U.S./China trade war.
At this point, he’s not wrong. One glance at the bubbly action early will tell you that. “You’d be dumb to bet against this sojourn into depravity,” he wrote. “How can you short stocks when all there is is upside surprises?”
His advice: Load up on tech, biotech and new IPOs.
Either way, getting caught betting against this bull market could leave a mark, especially as the wounds of June’s huge performance are still raw.
However, while the bulls have the upper hand, Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya is convinced there isn’t much meat to the recent developments.
There is “no immediate escalation, but still no clear path towards a comprehensive deal,” Ahya explained in our call of the day. “We lack clarity on whether real progress was achieved on the sticking points that caused talks to break down in the first place.”
Not just that, in a note on Sunday he also said trade tensions are becoming more of a problem for business confidence. He sees global growth slowing to a six-year low of 2.9% by the end of the year, from a recent peak of 4% last year.
Ahya wasn’t the only one questioning Monday’s rise in shares:
For now, the uncertainty that’s dogged — and ultimately fueled — this market does, indeed, appear to have lifted. We’ll see how long that lasts.
The market
The Dow DJIA, +0.86% , S&P SPX, +0.97% and Nasdaq COMP, +1.43% all surged out of the gates thanks to the latest on the trade front. Gold GCQ19, -1.19% is feeling a stiff risk-off breeze and heading lower. The U.S. dollar DXY, +0.30% and oil US:CLN19 US:CLN19 are both up. Europe stocks SXXP, +0.92% also enjoyed a big lift. Same with Asian markets ADOW, +0.59% . Bitcoin BTCUSD, -7.02% is looking at another sizeable drop.
The buzz
Facebook FB, +0.70% announced plans to make ads for jobs, and financial services searchable and available to all, in an effort to eliminate discrimination.
In what’s already become a wild NBA offseason for free agents, two-time champ Kevin Durant, who will be sidelined next year due to his ruptured Achilles tendon, is taking his talents to New Jersey to unite with Kyrie Irving.
The chart
The U.S. national debt reached a new milestone of $22 trillion this year. So, which countries around the world currently hold all that debt? Cost-estimating website HowMuch.net breaks it all down with this colorful illustration:
The economy
All eyes will be on the June jobs report, but we won’t get a look at that until the end of the week. Car sales will also be released later this week. As for Monday, the ISM manufacturing index hits at 10:00 a.m. Eastern along with construction spending for May. Nothing Thursday, of course, in observance of the 4th of July.
The stat
80% — That’s how much of the stock market is in the hands of automated buyers and sellers, such as quant funds and ETFs, according to J.P. Morgan estimates cited by CNBC. This means that the market is more sensitive to headlines and the kinds of sharp swings we’ve seen in recent history.
The tweet
Random reads
Canadian cartoonist loses job over his depiction of Trump “playing through” next to the father and daughter who died crossing the Rio Grande.
Nashville is transforming itself into a global city.
This BuzzFeed reporter is getting shredded for whining about her travels.
Major League Baseball in the U.K. was a big hit.
U.S. women’s soccer team accused of spying on British rivals
Saudi Crown Prince MBS is BACK on the world stage, apparently putting all those pesky allegations firmly behind him.
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