It’s been about a year since President Trump took office Jan. 20, 2017. It’s sometimes been contentious and even chaotic. But, for investors, it’s been among the best of times.
The S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.16% of the largest U.S. stocks has returned 26.3% since Jan. 19, 2017, the day before Trump’s inauguration. This next year could be more of the same, helped by economic growth at home and abroad, low U.S. unemployment and the biggest federal tax cut in a generation.
“There’s still meat on the bone,” said Bill McMahon, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab unit ThomasPartners.
He said in an interview that Wall Street analysts have not yet fully incorporated the tax cuts Trump signed into law on Dec. 22 into their earnings estimates. That means those estimates will be rising, reducing stocks’ price-to-earnings ratios and, therefore, supporting more share-price gains.
More on tax cuts: Here’s what every S&P 500 company actually pays in taxes
Michael Cuggino is “overweight” stocks in his Permanent Portfolio PRPFX, -0.40% which is managed to take advantage of all sorts of market conditions. In an interview, he said growth in emerging economies means increased demand for commodities, which bodes well for the energy and materials sectors.
Cuggino said other sectors — banking, industrial technology, biotechnology, medical equipment and services, and transportation — are also getting a tailwind.
“Internationally focused U.S. businesses will do very well,” he said, as strengthening economies abroad have pushed down the value of the dollar, making U.S. exports more attractive.
Jim Brilliant, who manages the CM Advisors Fixed Income Fund CMFIX, +0.00% said in an interview that simultaneous economic growth around the world will signal a “sector rotation” for stocks away from higher-growth industries into value plays in the industrial, energy and materials sectors.
Breaking down the S&P 500
Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 have performed since Jan. 19, 2017, and since the close on Nov. 8, 2016, before Trump was elected later that night:
| Sector | Total return - Jan. 19, 2017-Jan. 17, 2018 | Total return - Nov. 8, 2016-Jan. 17, 2018 |
| Information Technology | 43.4% | 49.5% |
| Financials | 29.9% | 50.2% |
| Health Care | 28.0% | 31.8% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.0% | 35.7% |
| Materials | 26.5% | 36.5% |
| Industrials | 25.7% | 37.4% |
| Consumer Staples | 13.8% | 13.4% |
| Energy | 7.7% | 15.2% |
| Utilities | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Real Estate | 6.3% | 8.3% |
| Telecommunications | -2.4% | 8.8% |
| S&P 500 | 26.3% | 34.2% |
| Source: FactSet | ||
That’s a broad rally, with most sectors posting double-digit gains.
S&P 500 stocks
The large-cap benchmark index actually includes 505 stocks, because several companies have two classes of common shares included in the index. Two companies have been traded publicly for less than a year.
So among the 503 remaining S&P 500 stocks, here’s a summary of performance since Trump’s inauguration:
| Up 100% or more | 3 |
| Up 75% to 99% | 12 |
| Up 50% to 74% | 44 |
| Up 25% to 49% | 164 |
| Up 10% to 24% | 128 |
| Up 1% to 9% | 48 |
| Flat | 8 |
| Down 1% to 9% | 53 |
| Down 10% to 24% | 27 |
| Down 25% to 49% | 15 |
| Down 50% to 75% | 1 |
| Total | 503 |
| Source: FactSet | |
So 223, or 44%, of the 503 stocks have returned at least 25% since Trump took office, while 59 are up at least 50%. If we dig deeper, 273, or 54%, of the stocks are up more than 20% during Trump’s first year as president.
Stock investors always try to look ahead. They could not have been certain that the Republican-controlled Congress would pass any major legislation during 2017, let alone a big tax cut, but you can see that if we look back to when Trump was elected, the stock return figures are much better.
Here’s how the 503 stocks have performed since Trump was elected on Nov. 8, 2016:
| Up 100% or more | 9 |
| Up 75% to 99% | 29 |
| Up 50% to 74% | 88 |
| Up 25% to 49% | 164 |
| Up 10% to 24% | 85 |
| Up 1% to 9% | 45 |
| Flat | 7 |
| Down 1% to 9% | 41 |
| Down 10% to 24% | 20 |
| Down 25% to 49% | 14 |
| Down 50% to 75% | 1 |
| Total | 503 |
| Source: FactSet | |
Since Trump’s election, 136 S&P 500 stocks have returned at least 50%, while 290, or 58%, have returned at least 25%.
Here are the 59 S&P 500 stocks that have returned at least 50% since Trump took office:
| Name | Ticker | Total return - Jan. 19, 2017 - Jan. 17, 2018 | Total return - Nov. 8, 2016 - Jan. 17, 2018 |
| Align Technology Inc. | ALGN, -0.57% | 179% | 185% |
| Nvidia Corp. | NVDA, -0.12% | 114% | 217% |
| Boeing Co. | BA, -3.09% | 112% | 137% |
| Micron Technology Inc. | MU, -0.61% | 97% | 146% |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | VRTX, +0.13% | 96% | 91% |
| PayPal Holdings Inc | PYPL, +0.57% | 93% | 92% |
| Intuitive Surgical Inc. | ISRG, +0.23% | 92% | 85% |
| D.R. Horton Inc. | DHI, -2.23% | 88% | 90% |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT, +0.20% | 85% | 106% |
| NRG Energy Inc. | NRG, -2.26% | 85% | 151% |
| PulteGroup Inc. | PHM, -0.73% | 85% | 92% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited | WYNN, +1.09% | 82% | 92% |
| Activision Blizzard Inc. | ATVI, -0.80% | 79% | 70% |
| Cboe Global Markets Inc | CBOE, +1.06% | 76% | 111% |
| NetApp Inc. | NTAP, -0.46% | 76% | 95% |
| Cadence Design Systems Inc. | CDNS, +0.18% | 73% | 76% |
| Lam Research Corp. | LRCX, +0.18% | 73% | 94% |
| Adobe Systems Inc. | ADBE, -0.15% | 72% | 74% |
| Centene Corp. | CNC, -0.31% | 72% | 60% |
| Red Hat Inc. | RHT, -0.89% | 71% | 65% |
| Best Buy Co. | BBY, +0.58% | 68% | 95% |
| Avery Dennison Corp. | AVY, +1.47% | 68% | 72% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV, -0.53% | 67% | 76% |
| Marriott International Inc. Class A | MAR, -0.61% | 67% | 94% |
| FMC Corp. | FMC, -3.93% | 66% | 86% |
| Estee Lauder Cos. Class A | EL, -0.82% | 66% | 64% |
| DXC Technology Co. | DXC, -0.13% | 64% | 77% |
| United Rentals Inc. | URI, +0.59% | 63% | 137% |
| Ansys Inc. | ANSS, +1.66% | 63% | 75% |
| Deere & Co. | DE, +0.28% | 63% | 93% |
| Lennar Corp. Class A | LEN, -0.24% | 62% | 71% |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc. | AMP, -0.50% | 62% | 102% |
| Anthem Inc. | ANTM, +0.20% | 61% | 89% |
| Kohl's Corp. | KSS, +0.40% | 60% | 48% |
| T. Rowe Price Group | TROW, -0.51% | 60% | 84% |
| Applied Materials Inc. | AMAT, +0.10% | 59% | 82% |
| Amazon.com Inc. | AMZN, -0.13% | 58% | 62% |
| Moody's Corp. | MCO, +0.11% | 58% | 59% |
| Netflix Inc. | NFLX, +1.30% | 57% | 75% |
| Rockwell Collins Inc. | COL, +0.40% | 56% | 69% |
| S&P Global Inc. | SPGI, +1.05% | 56% | 42% |
| PVH Corp. | PVH, +1.55% | 56% | 33% |
| Progressive Corp. | PGR, +0.10% | 56% | 77% |
| HP Inc. | HPQ, -0.72% | 55% | 52% |
| Total System Services Inc. | TSS, -0.25% | 55% | 67% |
| Aptiv PLC | APTV, -0.49% | 55% | 59% |
| V.F. Corp. | VFC, +0.37% | 54% | 47% |
| Packaging Corp. of America | PKG, -0.51% | 54% | 66% |
| Wyndham Worldwide Corp. | WYN, +4.78% | 54% | 79% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc. | MTD, -0.42% | 54% | 49% |
| Texas Instruments Inc. | TXN, -2.31% | 54% | 63% |
| Michael Kors Holdings Ltd | KORS, +0.59% | 53% | 28% |
| Aetna Inc. | AET, +0.21% | 52% | 66% |
| Sherwin-Williams Co. | SHW, +0.89% | 52% | 71% |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT, +1.56% | 52% | 48% |
| Brown-Forman Corp. Class B | BF.B, -0.84% | 51% | 44% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | RCL, -0.68% | 51% | 66% |
| Rockwell Automation Inc. | ROK, -0.73% | 50% | 69% |
| Agilent Technologies Inc. | A, +0.18% | 50% | 57% |
| Source: FactSet | |||
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