Deep Dive: In The Bull Markets Ninth Year, Winning Stocks Hide Lingering Pain

Nine years have passed since U.S. stocks bottomed in March 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis. The stock market as a whole has gone on to post stellar numbers, but a deeper dive reveals some lingering ugliness.

We will list the companies that suffered the worst stock performance during the financial crisis, and the ones that have performed best and worst since the market bottomed on March 9, 2009.

First, here’s a 15-year chart of the total return of the S&P 500 Index SPX, +1.74% with dividends reinvested, through March 8:

The financial meltdown of 2007 and 2008 began with a liquidity crisis in August 2007. From the pre-crisis closing high on July 13, 2007, through the closing bottom on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 dropped 55%. Here’s what it has done since then:

Not bad — a bull-market gain of 390%.

But if we look at a chart from the pre-crisis high on July 13, 2007, through the most recent close, the story changes:

Not terrible — a gain of 122% in less than 11 years. Even if it were 11 full years, the average annual return would be a respectable 11.1%.

The biggest losers of the crisis

S&P Global provided list of the S&P 500 as of June 30, 2007, so that we could identify the stocks that declined the most from the pre-crisis high on July 13, 2007, through the post-crisis bottom on March 9, 2009. Some companies didn’t survive the crisis and are therefore left off the list. Those include investment bank Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.

Here are the 20 S&P 500 stocks that posted the worst performance from the market’s pre-crisis high through its post-crisis bottom:

Company Ticker Industry Total return - July 13, 2007 - March 9, 2009 Total return - March 9, 2009 - March 8, 2018 Total return - July 13, 2007 - March 8, 2018
American International Group Inc. AIG, +0.53% Multi-Line Insurance -99% 929% -95%
Fannie Mae FNM, +5.26% Finance/ Rental/ Leasing -99% 318% -97%
Freddie Mac FMCC, +1.28% Finance/ Rental/ Leasing -99% 322% -97%
Office Depot Inc. ODP, +2.07% Specialty Stores -98% 328% -92%
Citigroup Inc. C, +2.70% Financial Conglomerates -98% 631% -84%
MGIC Investment Corp. MTG, +3.88% Specialty Insurance -98% 1,035% -75%
E*TRADE Financial Corp. ETFC, +3.75% Investment Banks/ Brokers -97% 832% -76%
Genworth Financial Inc. Class A GNW, +2.62% Life/ Health Insurance -97% 235% -91%
DDR Corp. DDR, -3.84% Real Estate Investment Trusts -97% 748% -76%
Unisys Corp. UIS, -0.44% Information Technology Services -96% 244% -88%
Fifth Third Bancorp FITB, +1.60% Regional Banks -96% 2,811% 7%
XL Group Ltd. XL, -0.23% Multi-Line Insurance -96% 2,050% -12%
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. HIG, +3.26% Multi-Line Insurance -95% 1,441% -30%
MBIA Inc. MBI, +2.39% Specialty Insurance -95% 171% -86%
Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN, +2.10% Regional Banks -94% 1,702% 2%
SLM Corp. SLM, +3.30% Finance/ Rental/ Leasing -94% 943% -38%
Sanmina-SCI Corp. SANM, +1.06% Electronic Components -94% 2,213% 45%
CBRE Group Inc. Class A CBG, +1.30% Real Estate Development -93% 1,634% 14%
E. W. Scripps Co. Class A SSP, +0.61% Broadcasting -93% 1,970% 42%
Textron Inc. TXT, +2.32% Industrial Conglomerates -93% 1,428% 10%
Sources: S&P Global, FactSet

The two columns on the right show a very different picture. The right-most column shows that the results for the companies hit hardest during the crisis remain ugly. This is because of the dilution to the pre-crisis shareholders by massive capital raises. Two examples are American International Group Inc. AIG, +0.53%  and Citigroup Inc. C, +2.70% which converted massive amounts of government-held preferred shares — issued in return for their bailouts — to common shares.

Unlike AIG and Citi, Fannie Mae FNMA, +0.01%  and Freddie Mac FMCC, +1.28% were never allowed to recapitalize and move on. Instead, most of profits of these mortgage giants, known as the government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, continue to be funneled to the U.S. Treasury. They have paid the government much more than they received during their bailouts.

S&P 500 winners and losers since the market bottom

Looking at the current list of S&P 500 companies, here are the 20 that have had the best total returns since the market bottom on March 9, 2009:

Company Ticker Industry Total return - March 9, 2009 - March 8, 2018 Total return - July 13, 2007 - March 8, 2018 Total return - July 13, 2007 - March 9, 2009
GGP Inc. GGP, +0.09% Real Estate Investment Trusts 9,107% -31% -99%
United Rentals Inc. URI, +3.29% Finance/ Rental/ Leasing 5,951% 429% -91%
Netflix Inc. NFLX, +4.56% Cable/ Satellite TV 5,664% 10,918% 91%
Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA, -0.30% Specialty Stores 4,769% N/A N/A
Incyte Corp. INCY, +1.96% Biotechnology 4,408% 1,496% -65%
Wyndham Worldwide Corp. WYN, +3.96% Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines 4,373% 278% -92%
Align Technology Inc. ALGN, +1.33% Medical Specialties 4,157% 939% -76%
IPG Photonics Corp. IPGP, +2.25% Electronic Equipment/ Instruments 3,505% 1,132% -66%
Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +1.72% Semiconductors 3,036% 751% -73%
Fifth Third Bancorp FITB, +1.60% Regional Banks 2,811% 7% -96%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. REGN, +0.27% Biotechnology 2,648% 1,747% -33%
Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG, +0.95% Other Consumer Services 2,644% 3,003% 13%
Seagate Technology PLC STX, +2.22% Computer Peripherals 2,539% 282% -86%
Qorvo Inc. QRVO, +1.52% Semiconductors 2,532% 231% -87%
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +1.74% Internet Retail 2,465% 1,966% -19%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, +1.47% Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines 2,327% 250% -86%
Extra Space Storage Inc. EXR, +1.31% Real Estate Investment Trusts 2,227% 710% -65%
XL Group Ltd. XL, -0.23% Multi-Line Insurance 2,050% -12% -96%
Micron Technology Inc. MU, -1.14% Semiconductors 2,040% 302% -81%
A. O. Smith Corp. AOS, +3.02% Building Products 1,952% 947% -49%
Source: FactSet

Again, it is interesting to look at the declines during the crisis and the total returns since the July 13, 2007, pre-crisis high. When we look back that far, Netflix Inc. NFLX, +4.56% emerges as the clear winner.

And here are the 20 S&P 500 companies with the worst total returns since the market bottom:

Company Ticker Industry Total return - March 9, 2009 - March 8, 2018 Total return - March 13, 2007 - March 8, 2018 Total return -July 13, 2007 - March 9, 2009
Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK, +4.38% Oil & Gas Production -75% -90% -61%
Range Resources Corp. RRC, +4.52% Oil & Gas Production -57% -59% -5%
Apache Corp. APA, +1.00% Oil & Gas Production -24% -54% -40%
Mosaic Company MOS, +3.52% Chemicals: Agricultural -19% -20% -1%
Devon Energy Corp. DVN, +1.02% Oil & Gas Production -7% -54% -51%
Hess Corp. HES, +3.77% Oil & Gas Production -4% -21% -18%
Newmont Mining Corp. NEM, +0.13% Precious Metals 13% 5% -7%
Newfield Exploration Co. NFX, -0.60% Oil & Gas Production 21% -53% -61%
Exelon Corp. EXC, +0.13% Electric Utilities 27% -25% -41%
FirstEnergy Corp. FE, +2.67% Electric Utilities 33% -22% -42%
Stericycle Inc. SRCL, +1.35% Services to the Health Industry 37% 44% 5%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX, +3.13% Precious Metals 38% -51% -65%
Marathon Oil Corp. MRO, +2.63% Oil & Gas Production 41% -52% -66%
Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, +0.59% Integrated Oil 50% 11% -26%
CenturyLink Inc. CTL, +0.67% Specialty Telecommunications 57% -18% -48%
Noble Energy Inc. NBL, +1.30% Oil & Gas Production 59% 6% -34%
PG&E Corp. PCG, +0.72% Electric Utilities 65% 36% -18%
People's United Financial Inc. PBCT, +1.92% Savings Banks 70% 71% 0%
Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY, +1.13% Oil & Gas Production 72% 41% -18%
Patterson Cos. PDCO, +1.48% Medical Distributors 76% -23% -56%
Source: FactSet

More coverage of the nine-year bull market:

Is this bull market really 9 years old?

The other assets that are in a bull market along with U.S. stocks

The best sector of this bull market is the ‘greatest investment story ever told’

Here’s why you shouldn’t give up on the bull market in stocks as its path gets rockier

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