Currencies: Euro Dives To 6-month Low Versus Dollar As Italian And Spanish Political Worries Fester

The dollar flexed its muscle against the euro Tuesday, as political turmoil in both Italy and Spain sent the shared currency diving to a six-month low against the U.S. unit.

What are currencies doing?

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.74% which gauges the U.S. unit against a half-dozen currencies, climbed 0.1% to 94.253, and the WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, +0.21% which measures the buck’s performance against 16 rivals, picked up 0.2% to 87.54.

Read: Being long the dollar is cool again

The euro EURUSD, -0.6366% fell to $1.1563, and hit an intraday low of $1.1510, moves that shoved the shared currency below $1.16 for the first time since Nov. 9, according to FactSet data. The euro traded at $1.1625 late Monday in New York, and has dropped more than 4% this month.

But against the haven Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.69% the dollar fell to ¥108.92 from ¥109.42 late Monday. The Swiss franc USDCHF, +0.0403% was down against the greenback, with the dollar buying 0.996 versus 0.9936.

Read: Here’s why emerging-market carnage is boosting the Japanese yen

The British pound GBPUSD, -0.4282%  fetched $1.3268, losing ground from $1.3312.

What’s driving the market?

Continental European politics took center stage in financial markets Tuesday, as investors in the U.S. and the U.K. returned from a three-day weekend.

The euro was shoved lower after Italian President Sergio Mattarella on blocked two antiestablishment parties from taking power by rejecting their euroskeptic candidate for economy minister. Mattarella then asked Carlo Cottarelli, a former International Monetary Fund official, to try to form a new government.

That’s prompted the populist 5 Star Movement and League parties to call for new elections. The two had agreed to form a coalition government after the general election in March — seen as the “worst-case scenario” by financial strategists.

Analysts have said the result of any new ballot would be seen as a referendum by Italians about their view of the euro and membership in the European Union, reviving worries about the stability of the eurozone.

Check out: 4 ways the ECB is preventing an Italian rerun of the euro crisis — for now

In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will face a no-confidence vote in parliament on Friday, which could lead to the ouster of his minority center-right government and its replacement by the Socialist Party. The center-left opposition party called for the vote after a corruption case ended in convictions for senior members of Rajoy’s People’s Party. The Socialist Party has reportedly pledged to hold new elections if it is successful in its bid to remove Rajoy.

What are strategists saying?

“The market response of pushing the euro lower appears justified, as this story is shaping up to be one more existential threat for the eurozone. In the event of early elections, euroskeptic and populist parties could gain an even bigger share of the voting pie, increasing the risk that policies like calling a referendum on the euro start being discussed again in eurozone’s third-largest economy,” wrote Andreas Georgiou, investment analyst at XM.com.

“As for the euro, while its longer-term outlook remains relatively bright, the currency’s near-term prospects continue to be clouded by a combination of political uncertainties, a European economy losing momentum, and an ECB that appears increasingly more cautious to normalize,” Georgiou said in a note.

What else is in focus?

In U.S. economic data, Case-Shiller home prices for March at due at 9 a.m. Eastern, followed by the consumer confidence reading for May at 10 a.m. Eastern. Consensus estimates of economists polled by MarketWatch put the latter at 127.5, compared with 128.7 before.

In other assets, equity futures were pointing at a lower open in the U.S., as European stocks were also lower in response to the turmoil on the continent.

U.S. Treasury yields were lower as well, with the 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.44%  last yielding 2.882%.

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