As markets await the release of crucial US inflation data today, the market is already behaving as if the number were dovish, with stocks, soft commodities, the US Dollar and treasury yields, all trading lower.
- Today is likely to be a very important day in the markets, especially the Forex market, as there will be a release of US CPI (inflation) data which in recent years has become the key driver of the Forex market. Data is widely expected to show a fall in the annualised inflation rate from 2.9% to 2.6%. If the fall is stronger than that, we can expect to see the US Dollar and its treasury yields decline further, while stock markets would likely get a boost. If the surprise is in the other direction, the effect on prices will likely be in the other direction.
- The Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen, helped by comments from a Bank of Japan official to the effect that the Bank will raise rates if inflation stays on track (i.e. continues to rise). The USD/JPY currency pair looks bearish and traded at a new 9-month low earlier below ¥141.
- In the Forex market, the Japanese Yen has been the strongest major currency since today’s Tokyo open, while the US Dollar has been the weakest, with the bearish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair continuing to show momentum.
- Most commodities, especially softs, are looking weak. WTI Crude Oil is looking bearish after trading at a new 14-month low yesterday. However, Gold remains bullish as it trades above $2,520 just a few dollars short of its record high which it made only a few weeks ago.
- Stock markets are showing declines almost everywhere, as the risk-off sentiment theme continues. The strongest falls are in Asia.
- US 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields continue to fall to new long-term lows, attracting trend traders into entering short positions. If your CFD broker does not offer trading in these yields, the relevant CME micro futures are another possibility for participating in this trade.
- The first US Presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris was held a few hours ago, with reaction polls seemingly showing Harris was perceived to have performed better overall. Betting markets have since shifted slightly in Harris’ favour, showing mostly identical odds for both major candidates. The race is extremely close in the major battleground states, and the result is currently clearly too close to call.
- There will be a release of UK GDP data later today, which is expected to show the British economy grew by 0.2% last month.
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