Global stock markets are rising again as the dust settles following the volatile swings that were seen at the time the Fed cut rates by 0.50% yesterday.
- The US Federal Reserve yesterday announced it was cutting its Overnight Rate by 0.50% from 5.50% to 5.00%. This was the Fed’s first rate cut in four years. It was expected by most analysts, although a strong majority thought the Fed would be more cautious and cut only by 0.25%. This move is seen as the Fed signalling that the fight against inflation which has dominated US monetary policy for the past few years, has been won. The Fed also signalled it would likely cut rates by a further 0.50% before the start of 2025, in line with the more dovish side of market expectations. Despite the decisively dovish Fed, there was a strong reaction against the initial surge in risky assets, but most risky assets are now moving in a positive direction.
- Global equity markets are higher almost everywhere. The S&P 500 Index traded at a new all-time high following the Fed release but ended the day lower. However, it is rising again and may attract trend traders on the long side if it makes a strongly bullish close today. Day traders may want to look for long trades today in this index.
- Gold briefly traded at a new record high above $2,600 following the Fed’s rate cut and is now bouncing back after reversing during the Asian session. Trend traders will be interested in being long of Gold.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, in line with the risk on/off paradigm. The Japanese Yen had been strong lately but is being hit by the improvement in risk sentiment, so it seems that the Yen was acting more as a haven that as a strong currency itself. However, the Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, and may send out a message which can affect the market’s perception of the Yen and cause another change in price direction.
- It is very interesting that both the USD/JPY currency pair and the 2-Year US Treasury Yield did not reach new lows following the Fed’s rate cut, as might be expected. This points to an oversold situation in these assets, which might signify that trend traders should consider exiting from these trades.
- The Bank of England will be holding a policy meeting today. It is expected that it will leave its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 5.00%.
- There will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data later today.
- The Bank of Japan will be holding a policy meeting tomorrow. It is expected that it will leave its Policy Rate unchanged at 0.25%.
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