The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed higher for a second straight month in November. CPI ticked higher to 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in October and matching the market estimate of 2.7%. Monthly, CPI rose to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in October and matching the market estimate. The rise in inflation was largely driven by higher food prices and a smaller decline in energy prices than in the previous inflation release.
The core CPI rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, gained 3.3% for a third straight month, in line with the market estimate. Monthly, core CPI was unchanged at 0.3%, matching the market estimate.
The inflation numbers came in as expected but market rate expectations have shifted significantly in the aftermath of the release. The odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 18 meeting have jumped to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release, according CME’s FedWatch. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and a final quarter-point cut at next week’s meeting seems a given. Fed policymakers have signaled a preference to trim interest rates gradually by quarter-point increments, which causes less market volatility than oversized half-point rate cuts.
The Fed will likely continue to cut rates into next year, while keeping a careful eye on inflation - if rates are cut too quickly, inflation could rebound higher. That is a scenario that the Fed is determined to avoid after the tough battle to contain inflation. On the other hand, lowering rates too slowly runs the risk of a sharp deterioration in the labor market and a jump in the unemployment rate.
The Fed is also concerned that if President-elect Trump follows through on his campaign promise and enacts sweeping tariffs, it could result in higher inflation. This could prod the Fed will to take a pause at the January 2025 meeting and re-evaluate inflation and employment data at the meeting in March 2025.
The US dollar has shown a muted reaction to today’s inflation report. The GBP/USD currency pair is almost unchanged and EUR/USD is down 0.08%. The other major currency pairs are also showing limited movement. The lack of movement from the US dollar is not surprising as the headline and core inflation rates matched the forecasts.
The US stock market opened a short while ago and is trading notably higher, with the NASDAQ 100 Index reaching a new all-time high price.
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