Summary: The US Dollar is losing ground against almost every other asset, as recent days have seen financial institutions begin to place more faith in the prospect of a Harris victory in the US Presidential Election, although Trump still has a very narrow edge in statistically tied polls.
- Markets are firmly focused on tomorrow’s US general election, which will decide the Presidency and control of both Houses of Congress. Polls show the races are too close to call, especially the Presidency, but betting markets and pollsters such as 538 are still suggesting that Trump is more likely than Harris to win the Presidency, with between 54% to 57% probability. However, markets are behaving as if Harris has the edge, with the US Dollar selling off everywhere, possible driven by a weekend poll which showed Harris winning in Iowa, which should be a safe state for Trump. When Trump looks more likely to win, the Dollar will likely rise; Harris, the Dollar will likely fall.
- Precious metals are rising somewhat today, with Gold looking the most bullish. Palladium has also recently reached a new high price and remains interesting to trend traders. Palladium futures are expensive but there is a Palladium ETF which is affordable.
- Iranian diplomats are promising a stronger attack against Israel than its previous attack on 1st October, through larger warheads, wider targets, and other sophisticated weapons. Such an attack is promised to come after polls close in the USA. However, Israel is in a strong position after destroying most of Iran’s air defences in its previous attack more than a week ago. Israel is certainly capable of hurting Iran by much more than Iran can hurt Israel. Crude Oil prices are rising, but this is seen as mostly due to OPEC announcing the delay of an agreed-upon hike in output. Iran is delaying any attack as it is frightened to influence the US Presidential Election in favour of Donald Trump, who will likely be more supportive of Israel and more aggressive towards the Islamist regime in Iran. The outcome of this election will probably affect Iran and Israel’s calculations.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since this week’s Tokyo open, while the US Dollar has been the weakest, putting the AUD/USD currency pair in focus.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls data came in far lower than expected, although Average Hourly Earnings rose a fraction higher than expected. There is increasing evidence that the US economy is cooling down, but more slowly and patchily than many downbeat economists have forecasted.
- There are no major high-impact data releases due today, but although it is a Monday, markets are likely to be more active than they are on a typical Monday.
For additional & up-to-date info on brokers please see our Forex brokers list.