Trump's Tech Leap Shakes Defence

The U.S. defence industry is on the brink of a big change. With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in 2025, the industry is preparing for a push towards new technology. Many experts say this change will impact how the military works and what it can do.

Trump's expected return brings hope for higher defence spending. The focus will be on advanced tech, including hypersonic weapons, missile defence, and space defence. For example, the budget for hypersonic research is set to rise to £6.9 billion in 2025 from £4.7 billion in 2024. This increase will greatly affect companies that build high-tech weapons, aircraft, and robots. It may also change how the military uses AI and automation.

The use of AI in the military is a top priority. Jake Sullivan, the outgoing National Security Advisor for President Biden, said that AI must be integrated into weapons and other systems like logistics and supply chains. He believes that AI will help not only in the field but also in offices and behind the scenes. This integration could make the military work faster and smarter.

Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Defence Secretary, supports these changes. He has said that the new defence budget should focus on making the military more deadly and innovative. “Technology is changing the battlefield,” he said. Hegseth also stressed the need to bring in the best people and use modern tools like AI, machine learning, and data analysis. He believes that when data is delivered to the right people at the right time, it can save lives and win battles.

Another key point is the push for domestic production. The Trump administration wants to build a strong U.S. industrial base. This means more work for companies that make defence equipment inside the country. By doing this, the government hopes to secure the supply chain for important technologies such as hypersonic missiles, space defence systems, and radar. This focus on home-grown production is aimed at boosting national security and reducing reliance on foreign parts.

Many big companies stand to benefit from these plans. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, for example, are set to gain from increased funding for hypersonic weapons and directed energy weapons. There is also a renewed focus on space defence. The creation of the Space Force under Trump’s previous term showed how important space is to national defence. The new term could mean even more development in space-based weapons and technology.

However, not all is smooth sailing for new defence tech companies. Small startups face a hard road when trying to get contracts from the Department of Defence (DOD). Last year, less than 1% of the £411 billion in federal defence contracts went to venture-backed tech firms. This means that many young companies struggle to break into the market. Chris Brose from Anduril, a defence tech firm, noted that the next administration must invest heavily in these new technologies. He points out that large procurement dollars are needed to buy these new systems at scale.

There is hope that the Pentagon will reform how it buys new tech. Shyam Sankar from Palantir said that the Pentagon can reform its processes as part of a larger modernisation effort. But some experts warn that change will not be easy. Steve Blank, a former Navy science advisor, said that startups might not understand the tough world they are entering. Many big companies and political groups have a strong grip on current processes. These groups may not want to change quickly, which could slow down progress.

The role of tech leaders like Elon Musk may also be significant. Musk and other Silicon Valley giants are becoming more involved in defence discussions. Their participation could lead to more partnerships between old defence companies and new tech firms. This mix of old and new could spark innovation but also create tension. Some worry that too much influence from big tech could lead to conflicts of interest or shift priorities away from national defence.

Cybersecurity is another area of focus. With cyber threats growing every day, the new administration is expected to invest heavily in cyber defence. This means spending more on systems that protect against hacking and cyber attacks. As countries around the world face more online threats, cyber defence will become a critical part of the military.

Despite these plans, there are warnings about roadblocks ahead. The defence tech industry is excited about reforms, but big challenges remain. The old guard of defence contractors has strong ties in Washington. They often work on Capitol Hill and in Senate committees. These connections make it hard to change old ways. Chris Brose mentioned that political will is needed to drive these changes. Without strong backing from politicians and Congress, the new plans may stall.

Looking at history helps us understand the situation. The U.S. military spent £916 billion in 2023, which was 40% of all global military spending. However, as a share of the country's economy, this spending has fallen over many years. The economy has grown faster than military spending. This context shows that, despite more money on the way, challenges like budget constraints and political resistance will not vanish overnight.

The international impact of these changes is also important. Allies like Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan rely on U.S. defence support. A boost in technology and spending could strengthen ties with these partners. It may also change how the U.S. works with other countries on defence matters. Some countries might feel left behind or pressured to match U.S. spending, which could cause tension.

Critics argue that the focus on new technology may overlook other important issues. Some worry that increasing spending on hypersonics and AI will create a dangerous arms race. They fear that the U.S. could spend too much and not enough on things like peacekeeping or humanitarian aid. Others worry that the new focus might sideline small businesses and startups. If big companies get most of the contracts, new ideas may never get a chance.

The potential for controversy is high. Some experts believe that Trump's planned changes will make the defence industry more agile and innovative. Others think that the industry will face many hurdles. The mix of old and new ideas, the power of big companies, and the push for rapid change could lead to conflicts. There is also concern that too much power in the hands of a few will hurt competition and innovation.

In conclusion, the U.S. defence industry stands on the edge of a major shift. With Trump’s expected return, there will be more money for new technology, a focus on AI, hypersonic weapons, space defence, and cybersecurity. The push for domestic production and reform of procurement processes gives hope for the future. However, many challenges lie ahead. The entrenched interests of big companies, the slow pace of political will, and the risks of an arms race create a complex picture. The next few years will tell if the promised revolution can overcome these roadblocks and truly change the face of defence.