Bond market investors are showing they think growth could be a good deal beneath even those tepid levels. Financial markets always factor into Fed decisions, so the yield picture likely played a role in the FOMC forecast that no further rate hikes will be coming this year, even though members indicated that two were likely as recently as December 2018.
"All anyone needs to do is read the first paragraph of the Fed press statement to see that the central bank has marked down its assessment of the economic landscape – the choice of words suggests far more than the tweaking that was done to the numerical projections," David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, said in his daily note Thursday.
Like other financial market observers, Rosenberg noted the diverse reactions between the bond and stock markets — fixed income yields are falling, indicating lower growth, while the stock market is rising.
"The stock market may not agree with the recessionary message from the Treasury market, but it would be foolish to disregard this bond curve move entirely," he wrote. "The real yield [compared to inflation] on a 10-year note has collapsed to a 14-month low of 0.56% — it never got his low during any part of the 2008/09 Great Recession, for some perspective."
To be sure, the dire warnings coming from the bond market have been coming over the past year or so, with still no recession in sight. Some market veterans are betting that this may be an example of the stock market getting it right and the fixed income side being too cautious.
"Could it be that the yield curve is signaling weak global economic growth and low inflation without necessarily implying a recession in the US? We think so, and the US stock market apparently supports our thesis," Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in his morning note Friday. "So why are global stock markets also doing so well? Perhaps there is too much pessimism about the global economic outlook."
There's also some indication in the market that the Fed's move Wednesday to telegraph a decidedly dovish stance could help widen the spread somewhat.
However, the challenges for the economy remain.
"It will come down to the U.S. consumer. That's the last thing that's holding us up," Boockvar said. "We'll need a decline in the stock market to tip over the consumer. So if the stock market can hang in, I think the U.S. can continue to see some growth. If we start to go back to the December lows again, that could be enough to tip us over."
